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Forecasting

Map showing 36-hour track forecast for Typhoon Maria and chart showing track errors for different experiments.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Impact of Geostationary Sounder on Typhoon Forecasts

by Suzana Camargo 24 November 202126 April 2022

An analysis of the impact of targeted observations from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder at high-temporal resolution on forecasts for Typhoon Maria in 2018.

Close-up view of the eye of category 5 Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station in March 2015
Posted inFeatures

Chasing Cyclones from Space

by C. R. Jackson, T. W. Ruff, J. A. Knaff, A. Mouche and C. R. Sampson 2 June 202126 April 2022

The pioneering use of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar to characterize tropical cyclones in near-real time has provided a crucial new tool with which to forecast powerful storms.

A graphical assessment of solar energetic particle forecasts
Posted inEditors' Highlights

How to Assess the Quality of Space Weather Forecasts?

by Michael A. Hapgood 27 May 202128 September 2021

The assessment of space weather event forecasts would benefit from more nuanced approaches that take account of event intensities peaking near the thresholds used to identify such events.

Plot showing seismicity near Mount Rinjani volcanoat Lombok Island, Indonesia, during July-September 2018
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Relating Seismicity and Volcano Eruptions

by I. Zaliapin 7 April 202112 January 2022

A global study suggests that volcanic eruption forecasting and detection may be improved by examining earthquake mechanisms and clustering in combination with individual volcano properties.

Redoubt Volcano on the west side of Cook Inlet, Alaska, erupts in March 2009.
Posted inNews

Volcanic Lands Warm Before Eruptions

by A. Papp 12 March 20212 May 2022

Satellite data have revealed that ground radiant temperatures around volcanoes rose in the years leading up to eruptions. The observation may help in forecasting future volcanic activity.

Aerial photograph of the Xin’an River Hydropower Station showing the dam that forms Qiandao Lake releasing flood waters into the river below.
Posted inNews

Finding “Glocal” Solutions to Flooding Problems

by Alka Tripathy-Lang 3 February 202120 May 2022

Scientists call for joint efforts to combine real-time global rainfall data with high-resolution local hydrology to better forecast floods.

Pair of images depicting Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities disturbed by background atmospheric gravity waves in the atmosphere (left) and in a simulation (right)
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Newly Identified Instabilities Enhance Atmospheric Turbulence

by Morgan Rehnberg 12 January 202114 February 2022

New high-resolution imaging and modeling reveal the first evidence of enhanced turbulence due to gravity wave modulation of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities.

Light clouds sit high in the sky on an otherwise sunny day
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Boosting Weather Prediction with Machine Learning

by Sarah Stanley 25 November 20203 May 2022

WeatherBench is a data set compiled to serve as a standard for evaluating new approaches to artificial intelligence–driven weather forecasting.

Sketches of river flow-induced seismicity (left) and eruption tremor (right) demonstrating their similarities
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Eruption Seismic Tremor Modeled as a Fluvial Process

by G. Waite 14 October 20202 May 2022

Impact and turbulence models for river tremor are adapted and combined into a model that predicts the amplitude and frequency content of volcanic eruption tremor.

An X4.9 class solar flare erupts from the Sun.
Posted inNews

Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method of Predicting Solar Flares

by Tim Hornyak 5 October 2020

Supercomputer 3D modeling of magnetic fields could help mitigate damage from geomagnetic storms.

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