The assessment of space weather event forecasts would benefit from more nuanced approaches that take account of event intensities peaking near the thresholds used to identify such events.
Forecasting
Posted inNews
Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method of Predicting Solar Flares
Supercomputer 3D modeling of magnetic fields could help mitigate damage from geomagnetic storms.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Ensemble Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival at 1 AU
Heliospheric imaging data can be used in ensemble modeling of CME arrival time at Earth to improve space weather forecasts, treating the solar wind as a 1-D incompressible hydrodynamic flow.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Advancing Ensemble Methods in Space Weather Forecasting
A short, must-read, report for anyone developing new space weather forecasts.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Machine Learning Improves Weather and Climate Models
New research evaluates the performance of generative adversarial networks for stochastic parameterizations.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Why Space Weather Needs Ensemble Forecasting
Weather forecasts combine many model predictions to create an ensemble that is more accurate than separate models, a technique now starting to be applied in space weather science.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Improving Temperature Forecasts in the Upper Atmosphere
Scientists are blending output from multi-year model runs to improve temperature forecasts in regions where satellites experience “drag,” in the hopes of avoiding future spacecraft collisions.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Fast CMEs Continue to Decelerate in the Outer Heliosphere
Most fast coronal mass ejections will be decelerated into ambient solar wind quickly in the inner heliosphere, but some of them continue the deceleration with an even larger amplitude beyond 1 AU.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Space Weather: Exploiting Meteorology’s Toolkit
Space weather forecasting is benefiting, and can benefit much further, from concepts and tools already developed by the global meteorological community.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A Better Way to Predict Space Storms
A new model of solar winds could reduce false alarms.