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Forecasting

Sketches of river flow-induced seismicity (left) and eruption tremor (right) demonstrating their similarities
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Eruption Seismic Tremor Modeled as a Fluvial Process

by Gregory Waite 14 October 20202 May 2022

Impact and turbulence models for river tremor are adapted and combined into a model that predicts the amplitude and frequency content of volcanic eruption tremor.

An X4.9 class solar flare erupts from the Sun.
Posted inNews

Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method of Predicting Solar Flares

by Tim Hornyak 5 October 2020

Supercomputer 3D modeling of magnetic fields could help mitigate damage from geomagnetic storms.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Ensemble Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival at 1 AU

by M. Hudson 18 September 202031 May 2022

Heliospheric imaging data can be used in ensemble modeling of CME arrival time at Earth to improve space weather forecasts, treating the solar wind as a 1-D incompressible hydrodynamic flow.

Maps showing the data assimilated wavefields at 30 and 120 seconds on the left and the forecasted future wavefields at 200 seconds on the right
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Real-time Ground Motion Estimation for Large Earthquakes

by M. Yamada 31 July 20202 March 2022

Advanced computing technology can be used to forecast ground shaking from earthquakes and provide an early warning in real time.

Schematic of an ensemble forecast where the lines represent trajectories of individual forecasts that diverge from each other owing to uncertainties in the initial conditions
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advancing Ensemble Methods in Space Weather Forecasting

by Michael A. Hapgood 23 June 202012 June 2020

A short, must-read, report for anyone developing new space weather forecasts.

Photo of a tornado
Posted inEditors' Vox

Bridging the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions

by C. Zhang 8 June 202029 March 2022

A special collection on subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction presents the latest progress in filling the gap between short-term weather prediction and longer-term climate prediction.

Diagram showing surface temperatures and winds on 12 February 2000 as predicted by a new machine learning model versus observed conditions on that day
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Improving Atmospheric Forecasts with Machine Learning

by Kate Wheeling 2 June 20208 March 2022

An efficient, low-resolution machine learning model can usefully predict the global atmospheric state as much as 3 days out.

Satellite image of Hurricanes Katia, Irma, and Jose
Posted inNews

NOAA Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

by Jenessa Duncombe 21 May 202020 May 2022

FEMA issued new guidance yesterday advising states to prepare for evacuations during the pandemic.

Diagrams illustrating Rossby waves traveling around the Sun and the Earth
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Space Weather Forecasting Takes Inspiration from Meteorology

by Sarah Stanley 11 May 202029 March 2022

Solar features analogous to major atmospheric waves on Earth could offer more advanced warning of harmful solar storms.

Sakurajima volcano emits a cloud of ash
Posted inNews

Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions?

by Mara Johnson-Groh 21 April 202015 June 2022

A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt.

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From AGU Journals

MOST SHARED
Reviews of Geophysics
“Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change”
By Matthew W. Jones et al.

HIGHLY CITED
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
“Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning”
By M. O. Andreae, P. Merlet

HOT ARTICLE
Geophysical Research Letters
“Relating Slip Behavior to Off-Fault Deformation Using Physical Models”
By Emily O. Ross et al.


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