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Global climate models

Chart comparing the maximum relative error obtained from various millennia long CMIP models using different estimation techniques.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

New Technique to Estimate Climate Sensitivity

by Suzana Camargo 3 February 202129 January 2021

Climate sensitivity can be estimated using multiple variables jointly in a multi-component linear regression.

Smoke billows in the distance from a mountain near Ukiah, Calif., as motorists drive down a street in the foreground.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

“Thirstier” Atmosphere Will Increase Wildfire Risk out West

by Sarah Stanley 2 December 2020

New climate projections could inform long-term wildfire and water resources management strategies in California and Nevada.

The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy sails through sea ice in the Beaufort Sea
Posted inFeatures

A 50-Year-Old Global Warming Forecast That Still Holds Up

by A. Lapenis 25 November 202028 September 2021

In 1972, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko used a simple methodology to make climate predictions that remain surprisingly accurate today and that could serve as a new “business-as-usual” scenario.

View from an aircraft of clouds formed by tropical convection in the eastern Pacific
Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Insights into Uncertainties About Earth’s Rising Temperature

by Sarah Stanley 30 October 2020

A comparison of climate models finds that much of the variation in their predictions of global warming arises from differences in how they simulate the response of convective processes to warming.

A cloudy mountain scene in southern France
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Regional Sensitivities Strongly Affect Modeled Climate Extremes

by David Shultz 22 September 2020

Analysis of temperature and precipitation extremes in two generations of CMIP climate models revealed similarities in regional climate sensitivities, contrasting with divergent global sensitivities.

The central processing unit–based Cheyenne supercomputer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)–Wyoming Supercomputing Center
Posted inOpinions

Earth System Modeling Must Become More Energy Efficient

by R. Loft 28 July 202022 November 2021

As weather and climate models grow larger and more data intensive, the amount of energy needed to run them continues to increase. Are researchers doing enough to minimize the carbon footprint of their computing?

A research team taking sediment cores on Lake Tanganyika in eastern Africa
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Traduciendo Modelos Climáticos al Lenguaje de Datos Paleoclimáticos

by Aaron Sidder 10 July 202029 September 2021

Un nuevo modelo permitirá a los modelos climáticos interpretar mejor las reconstrucciones paleoclimáticas derivadas de sedimentos de lagos y podrá mejorar las predicciones de las condiciones climáticas futuras.

Seabird soars over a very stormy Southern Ocean
Posted inNews

Larger Waves in Store as the Planet Warms

by Katherine Kornei 9 July 2020

By the end of the 21st century, waves will have gotten larger in some ocean basins, particularly the Southern Ocean, climate modeling reveals.

World map showing a climate simulation with hotter forecasts shaded red and cooler forecasts shaded blue
Posted inNews

Will COVID’s Cleaner Skies Muddy Climate Models?

by JoAnna Wendel 2 July 202022 October 2021

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions for a year or two won’t slow down climate change, but they may throw off scientists’ ability to model short-term phenomena.

Satellite image of lightning flashing inside a giant thunderstorm over the bright terrestrial lights of Bolivia
Posted inFeatures

Studying Earth’s Double Electrical Heartbeat

by Damond Benningfield 4 May 202022 November 2021

Charged by thunderstorms and other weather phenomena, the global electrical circuit connects the entire planet.

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