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Models

Schematic of an ensemble forecast where the lines represent trajectories of individual forecasts that diverge from each other owing to uncertainties in the initial conditions
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advancing Ensemble Methods in Space Weather Forecasting

by Michael A. Hapgood 23 June 202012 June 2020

A short, must-read, report for anyone developing new space weather forecasts.

Winds in the thermosphere
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Windy Weather in the Thermosphere

by A. Rodger 20 February 2019

The weather in the thermosphere includes winds that buffet spacecraft as they orbit the Earth, but how well can these winds be modeled?

Posted inEditors' Highlights

First Multi-Decade Simulation of the Earth’s Radiation Belt

by P. O’Brien 19 December 2018

A new simulation of the Earth’s electron radiation belts captures large-scale variations over nearly three solar cycles, and replicates primary cyclical features and extreme behaviors.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Why Space Weather Needs Ensemble Forecasting

by D. T. Welling 9 August 2018

Weather forecasts combine many model predictions to create an ensemble that is more accurate than separate models, a technique now starting to be applied in space weather science.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Improving Temperature Forecasts in the Upper Atmosphere

by D. J. Knipp 19 March 2018

Scientists are blending output from multi-year model runs to improve temperature forecasts in regions where satellites experience “drag,” in the hopes of avoiding future spacecraft collisions.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Comparing the Accuracy of Geomagnetic Field Models

by D. J. Knipp 27 December 2017

Improved accuracy and optimization of models could benefit many applications.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Solar Wind Model Could Improve Space Weather Forecasts

by Sarah Stanley 26 February 201626 February 2016

Real-world data drive a simulation that successfully predicts Sun structures and interplanetary solar wind dynamics.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Solar Storms Are More Predictable Than Hurricanes

by Mark Zastrow 22 February 201622 February 2016

An encouraging new study finds that solar storms don't propagate chaotically like hurricanes—their arrivals are more predictable, which should make it easier for our planet to prepare for them.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Space Weather Forecast Technique Fails to Improve Forecasts

by Mark Zastrow 18 February 201622 February 2016

For years, scientists have proposed upgrading the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's solar storm forecasts to account for their tilt as they streak toward Earth. But does it help?

Posted inResearch Spotlights

River Slope Connects Modern Topography with Ancient Tectonics

by JoAnna Wendel 10 December 201411 February 2022

Scientists create models to help them figure out how the slope of a river can record ancient tectonic activity.

From AGU Journals

MOST SHARED
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
“Near-Future pCO2 During the Hot Miocene Climatic Optimum”
By M. Steinthorsdottir et al.

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“Surface uplift, tectonics, and erosion of eastern Tibet from large-scale drainage patterns”
By M. K. Clark et al.

HOT ARTICLE
GeoHealth
“Nationwide and Regional PM2.5-Related Air Quality Health Benefits from the Removal of Energy-Related Emissions in the United States”
By Nicholas A. Mailloux et al.


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