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forecasting

A map of the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada showing the anomalous heat wave of 2021. Much of Washington and Oregon, except for the coastal or mountainous areas, shows temperatures in red, designating heat exceeding 20°C with maximum temperatures recorded at 69°C in Washington State.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Machine Learning Could Improve Extreme Weather Warnings

Sarah Derouin, Science Writer by Sarah Derouin 11 October 202411 October 2024

A deep learning technique could reduce the error in 10-day weather forecasts by more than 90%, allowing communities to better prepare for extreme events such as heat waves.

Satellite image of Hurricane Helene with its eye over the Florida coast
Posted inNews

Marine Heat Waves Make Tropical Storm Intensification More Likely

by Roberto González 4 October 20244 October 2024

Rapid intensification of hurricanes is 50% more likely to occur during marine heat waves in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Aerial photo of Mount Kīlauea
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Forecasting Caldera Collapse Using Deep Learning

by Olivier Roche 18 September 202417 September 2024

A deep learning model trained with geophysical data recorded during the well-documented 2018 Kilauea volcano eruption, Hawaii, predicts recurrent caldera collapse events.

Aerial view of muddy-looking floodwaters from a meandering river flooding houses and buildings throughout a town spread on either side of the river
Posted inOpinions

Cultivating Trust in AI for Disaster Management

by Monique M. Kuglitsch, Ivanka Pelivan, Chinnawat Danakkaew, Jesper Dramsch and Reza Arghandeh 11 September 202416 January 2025

Artificial intelligence applied in disaster management must be reliable, accurate, and, above all, transparent. But what does transparency in AI mean, why do we need it, and how is it achieved?

Photo of a long line of cracked earth within a mountain valley.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – What Is It and How Is It Done?

by Leila Mizrahi 29 August 202410 September 2024

While earthquakes cannot be deterministically predicted, operational earthquake forecasting systems can provide valuable insights into the likelihood of future quakes.

A satellite image of four tropical cyclones with pinwheel shapes forming in the Pacific Ocean
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Physics Meets Machine Learning for Better Cyclone Predictions

Sarah Derouin, Science Writer by Sarah Derouin 20 August 202420 August 2024

A new hybrid modeling approach combines physics-based and machine learning models to extend—and improve—path and intensity predictions of tropical cyclones.

Picadura de mosquito
Posted inNews

La transmisión de la malaria en África varía con el clima y la hidrología

by Carolyn Wilke 26 July 202412 August 2024

Los datos sobre las precipitaciones por sí solos no pueden predecir dónde puede aparecer la malaria. Si se tienen en cuenta los procesos hidrológicos, los investigadores pueden hacerse una imagen más precisa de la transmisión.

Sarah Minson holding a cat in front of a fence.
Posted inFeatures

Sarah Minson: A Collaborative Quake Career

by J. Besl 25 July 202425 July 2024

A geophysicist thrives on teamwork at the U.S. Geological Survey.

A person sits at a computer screen while looking at the camera and smiling.
Posted inFeatures

Tanja Amerstorfer: Forecasting Space Weather

by Elise Cutts 25 July 202425 July 2024

The deputy head of the Austrian Space Weather Office built a supportive network.

Figure from the study showing a map and globe.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Ocean Impacts on European Winter Weather

by Hannah Christensen 16 July 202416 July 2024

State-of-the-art high-resolution models are needed to reveal the ocean’s role in driving extra-tropical weather systems.

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Coupled Isotopes Reveal Sedimentary Sources of Rare Metal Granites

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Inside Volcanic Clouds: Where Tephra Goes and Why It Matters

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