Subseasonal weather forecast ensembles are a useful tool for overcoming the inherent difficulty of quantifying extreme weather risk caused by data scarcity.
forecasting
Posted inNews
Tornadoes’ Fastest Winds Howl Close to the Ground
Radar data from storm-tracking scientists reveal that twisters’ winds churn 30% faster near Earth’s surface than above 100 meters, where measurements usually are taken.
Posted inNews
Extreme Wildfires Make Their Own Weather
Extreme fires in the western United States and Southeast Asia influenced the local weather in ways that make fires and smoke pollution worse.
Posted inNews
Accounting for Offbeat Earthquakes Could Improve Forecasts
A new model considers the full history of earthquakes on a fault, improving forecasts of when the next will strike.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
A New Coupled Modeling System Improves Forecast Skills
Building on older versions, the new Global Ensemble Forecast System with coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-ice-wave models has better forecasting skills of the atmosphere than the uncoupled system.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Predicting Flood Conditions in the Next Few Years
Multiyear flood predictions are possible for watersheds in which the magnitude and frequency of flooding can be related to an atmospheric pressure see-saw in the North Atlantic region.
Posted inNews
Drones Make Weather Prediction Easier at the Poles
Researchers measured wind speed with a commercially available drone and a lightweight sensor. The approach could help scientists gather more data from remote environments.
Posted inFeatures
Are We Entering The Golden Age Of Climate Modeling?
Thanks to the advent of exascale computing, local climate forecasts may soon be a reality. And they’re not just for scientists anymore.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A Better Operational Lava Flow Model
By segmenting the vertical structure of a lava flow, the Lava2d model provides more realism to operational lava forecasts.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
What is the Best Predictor of Landfalling Hurricane Damage?
A new study finds that the minimum sea level pressure, as another measure of hurricane strength, is a better predictor of hurricane damage in the United States than the maximum sustained wind speed.