Schematic of an ensemble forecast where the lines represent trajectories of individual forecasts that diverge from each other owing to uncertainties in the initial conditions
Schematic of an ensemble forecast where the lines represent trajectories of individual forecasts that diverge from each other owing to uncertainties in the initial conditions. The gray envelope highlights that there are range of forecast states, not just the state that arises from a single deterministic forecast (as indicated by the black circle). Credit: Murray [2018], Figure 5
Source: Space Weather

Over the past few decades, ensemble modelling has become a key technique for understanding and forecasting geophysical phenomena. A short meeting report by Guerra et al. [2020] highlights the progress made in applying ensembles to the forecasting of space weather phenomena. This is a key pathway towards better forecasts that not only improve accuracy but that also quantify the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts. This can help users of forecasts assess the benefits and costs of actions to mitigate the expected impacts of space weather. I encourage readers interested in research into, and use of, ensemble methods to read the report and to follow the links provided in the report.

Citation: Guerra, J. A., Murray, S. A., & Doornbos, E. [2020]. The use of ensembles in Space Weather Forecasting. Space Weather, 18, e2020SW002443. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002443

 —Michael A. Hapgood, Editor, Space Weather

Text © 2020. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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