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forecasting

Photo of a large plume of smoke emitting from a volcano.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Inside Volcanic Clouds: Where Tephra Goes and Why It Matters

by Federica Pardini 16 June 202512 June 2025

Monitoring and forecasting the movement of volcanic clouds is key to mitigating the impacts on communities, infrastructure, and air traffic.

Map of the ENSO in the pacific ocean with 2 equations overlain.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Two Equations that Unlock El Niño

by Jérôme Vialard 5 June 20254 June 2025

Despite the El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s global reach and complex ocean–atmosphere interactions across timescales, two simple, elegant equations capture its key dynamics and defining properties.

A silver cooler with 20 round hailstones
Posted inNews

Isotopes Map Hailstones’ Paths Through Clouds

by Carolyn Wilke 30 May 20253 June 2025

Hailstones have been said to bounce up and down through clouds as they grow. A new study found that many stones take much simpler paths.

A satellite image shows a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.
Posted inNews

Busy Hurricane Season Expected in 2025

by Grace van Deelen 22 May 202522 May 2025

A new NOAA report predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season, though global weather patterns could still shift predictions.

Lightning strikes the ocean behind two lighthouses.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Storm Prediction Gets 10 Times Faster Thanks to AI

by Saima May Sidik 20 May 202520 May 2025

Forecasters hope new algorithms will lead to earlier warnings of when dangerous weather is on the way.

Satellite photo of a subtropical cyclone.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

The All-In-One Cyclone Identification Framework

by Matei Georgescu 22 April 202517 April 2025

Researchers present a new framework for global detection and classification of all low-pressure systems.

Photo of a caldera
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Deflected Dikes Perturb the Plumbing System

by Thorsten W. Becker 11 April 202510 April 2025

A multidisciplinary synthesis of the Campi Flegrei, Italy volcanic setting highlights the importance of sub-caldera layering for magma dynamics.

Graphs and a map from the study.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Fast Adept Sea Ice Forecasts

by Andrew Roberts 8 January 202520 December 2024

Artificial intelligence facilitates an efficient, skillful surrogate of a coupled Arctic sea ice prediction model using generative diffusion.

Scientists stand atop Arctic ice.
Posted inFeatures

The Arctic’s Uncertain Future

by Grace van Deelen 15 November 202415 November 2024

Over the next century, the Arctic will change and look much different than it does today. Just how different is still unknown.

Foto satelital del Huracán Helene en el Golfo de México
Posted inNews

Las olas de calor marinas incrementan la probabilidad de intensificación de las tormentas tropicales

by Roberto González 1 November 20245 November 2024

La probabilidad de que los huracanes experimenten una intensificación rápida aumenta en un 50% durante las olas de calor marinas que se desarrollan en el Golfo de México y en la región noroeste del Mar Caribe.

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Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Orbiter Pair Expands View of Martian Ionosphere

20 June 202519 June 2025
Editors' Highlights

Coupled Isotopes Reveal Sedimentary Sources of Rare Metal Granites

17 June 202516 June 2025
Editors' Vox

Inside Volcanic Clouds: Where Tephra Goes and Why It Matters

16 June 202512 June 2025
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