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forecasting

A wildfire on a hillside burns at night.
Posted inResearch & Developments

2026 Has Already Broken Climate Records. El Niño Could Break More.

by Grace van Deelen 12 May 202611 May 2026

As the midpoint of the year approaches, several climate records have already been broken. Arctic winter sea ice extent reached a record low. Several countries saw record-breaking winter heat waves. And more than 150 million acres have already burned globally in wildfires.

A wildfire burns in a forest at night.
Posted inNews

Most of the U.S. West Will Face Above-Normal Wildfire Risk This Summer

by Grace van Deelen 11 May 202611 May 2026

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts elevated wildfire potential across much of the West and many Southeast states through August.

Graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Harnessing Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability from Annual Evolution

by Xin-Zhong Liang 31 March 202626 March 2026

Capturing year-to-year variations of the stratospheric polar vortex’s annual evolution enables skillful prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) cold-season anomalies up to six months in advance.

Satellite view of half of Earth against a black background showing parts of East Asia and Oceania; it has land surface temperature data, represented on a blue (cold) to red (hot) rainbow color scale, superimposed on it.
Posted inScience Updates

Geostationary Satellite Applications Expand into Land Monitoring

by Xiangzhong Luo, Misaki Hase, Xuanlong Ma, Yuhei Yamamoto and Kazuhito Ichii 13 March 202613 March 2026

Known for their weather-observing prowess, these satellites can also track land surface processes and disturbances over broad areas in near-real time.

Diagrams from the article.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Slow and Fast Madden-Julian Oscillation Modes

by Suzana Camargo 25 February 202625 February 2026

The skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts can be improved by identifying slow- and fast-MJO modes and their superposition.

View from the shoreline of a small, tree-lined river that is almost entirely tinted bright green by algae. A low bridge crosses the river in the background.
Posted inScience Updates

How to Accelerate Advances in Ecological Forecasting

by Jacob A. Zwart, Cameron Thompson, Hassan Moustahfid, Jessica Burnett and Michael Dietze 24 February 202624 February 2026

Developing shared cyberinfrastructure can enhance predictions of ecological change and enable improved decisionmaking for resource management and public well-being.

Photo of a gas station with dark storm clouds looming above.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Tsunamis from the Sky

by Ivica Vilibić, Petra Zemunik Selak and Jadranka Šepić 3 February 20263 February 2026

Not all tsunamis come from the seafloor, some are triggered by the atmosphere, driven by fast-moving storms and pressure waves, and can strike coasts with little warning.

Snow dusts the mountains around the Mesa Laboratory of the Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
Posted inOpinions

What Americans Lose If Their National Center for Atmospheric Research Is Dismantled

by Carlos Martinez 27 January 202627 January 2026

Five ways dismantling NCAR will cost the American people, and two ways to save it.

A satellite view of a portion of Earth shows the planet’s curved horizon at the top of the image. Green and brown landmasses are cut by two large, blue, winding rivers that empty into the ocean in the foreground. Clouds are visible on the edges of the image.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

New River Chemistry Insights May Boost Coastal Ocean Modeling

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 9 January 20269 January 2026

By more realistically accounting for river inputs, researchers reduced overestimation of the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by coastal waters.

A satellite image of the west coast of Africa shows a white swirl of clouds beginning to form.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Warming May Make Tropical Cyclone “Seeds” Riskier for Africa

by Sean Cummings 19 December 202519 December 2025

Intensified hurricane precursors may linger longer over the continent, worsening extreme flooding hazards.

Posts pagination

1 2 3 … 26 Older posts
Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

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A Digital Twin for Arctic Permafrost Beneath Roads

8 May 202612 May 2026
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