Improved estimates of Eruption Source Parameters can sharpen forecasts of volcanic plume rise and ash dispersal, supporting aviation safety and hazard response.
forecasting
Posted inNews
NOAA Forecasts a Below-Average Hurricane Season
A potentially record-breaking El Niño may reduce the likelihood of storms, but the agency still stressed the importance of preparedness.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Keeping Humans in the Loop Improves Flood Forecasting
Artificial intelligence and machine learning can improve flood predictions—but human expertise still matters for accurate warnings, new research says.
Posted inResearch & Developments
2026 Has Already Broken Climate Records. El Niño Could Break More.
As the midpoint of the year approaches, several climate records have already been broken. Arctic winter sea ice extent reached a record low. Several countries saw record-breaking winter heat waves. And more than 150 million acres have already burned globally in wildfires.
Posted inNews
Most of the U.S. West Will Face Above-Normal Wildfire Risk This Summer
The National Interagency Fire Center predicts elevated wildfire potential across much of the West and many Southeast states through August.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Harnessing Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability from Annual Evolution
Capturing year-to-year variations of the stratospheric polar vortex’s annual evolution enables skillful prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) cold-season anomalies up to six months in advance.
Posted inScience Updates
Geostationary Satellite Applications Expand into Land Monitoring
Known for their weather-observing prowess, these satellites can also track land surface processes and disturbances over broad areas in near-real time.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Slow and Fast Madden-Julian Oscillation Modes
The skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts can be improved by identifying slow- and fast-MJO modes and their superposition.
Posted inScience Updates
How to Accelerate Advances in Ecological Forecasting
Developing shared cyberinfrastructure can enhance predictions of ecological change and enable improved decisionmaking for resource management and public well-being.
Posted inEditors' Vox
Tsunamis from the Sky
Not all tsunamis come from the seafloor, some are triggered by the atmosphere, driven by fast-moving storms and pressure waves, and can strike coasts with little warning.