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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Two charts show the way that ENSO is asymmetrical. On the left, a chart labeled “Diurnal variation” shows how sea surface temperature is higher during the day than at night. On the right, a chart labeled “ENSO asymmetry” shows two lines, with time on the x axis and temperature on the y axis. Both lines peak in the middle, but the red line labeled “El Niño” has a higher peak than the blue line labeled “La Niña.”
Posted inResearch Spotlights

El Niño Warming Is Stronger Than La Niña Cooling. What’s the Right Way to Model This Asymmetry?

by Nathaniel Scharping 7 July 20267 July 2026

A new study looks at daily swings in sea surface temperatures for new insights.

A capuchin monkey, which has a brown body and a white face, grips the trunk of a narrow tree and looks at the camera with big, sad eyes.
Posted inNews

Climate Extremes May Be Reshaping Monkeys’ Social Structures

by Roberto González 18 June 202618 June 2026

Large groups have their pros and cons. But a changing climate may push them off balance.

A gif of the Earth shows a pattern of red and blue swirling over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Posted inResearch & Developments

6 Ways This Year’s “Super El Niño” Could Affect Climate, Humans, and Marine Creatures

by Emily Gardner 11 June 202612 June 2026

The key word here is “could.” Experts emphasize that no two El Niños are alike.

A hurricane on Earth is seen from the International Space Station.
Posted inNews

NOAA Forecasts a Below-Average Hurricane Season

by Emily Gardner 21 May 202617 June 2026

A potentially record-breaking El Niño may reduce the likelihood of storms, but the agency still stressed the importance of preparedness.

A wildfire on a hillside burns at night.
Posted inResearch & Developments

2026 Has Already Broken Climate Records. El Niño Could Break More.

by Grace van Deelen 12 May 202611 May 2026

As the midpoint of the year approaches, several climate records have already been broken. Arctic winter sea ice extent reached a record low. Several countries saw record-breaking winter heat waves. And more than 150 million acres have already burned globally in wildfires.

A wildfire burns in a forest at night.
Posted inNews

Most of the U.S. West Will Face Above-Normal Wildfire Risk This Summer

by Grace van Deelen 11 May 202611 May 2026

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts elevated wildfire potential across much of the West and many Southeast states through August.

The Sun looms large in a red sky over the trees of the Amazon rainforest.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Drought Drove the Amazon’s 2023 Switch to a Carbon Source

by Madeline Reinsel 25 February 202625 February 2026

The change was caused by thirsty vegetation taking up less carbon than normal, not by the year’s extended fire season, new research shows.

A bright yellow sun in an orange sky over hazy mountains.
Posted inNews

The Past 3 Years Have Been the Three Hottest on Record

by Grace van Deelen 14 January 202614 January 2026

Extreme heat in 2023, 2024, and 2025 indicates a warming spike, a new analysis finds.

A new analysis of atmospheric patterns over Hawaii could improve forecasts of rainfall anomalies.
Posted inNews

Globe-Trotting Weather Pattern Influences Rainfall in Hawaii

by Kari Goodbar 18 December 202518 December 2025

Isolated islands that depend on rainfall could benefit from improved forecasting of near-future events, and understanding the Madden-Julian Oscillation could hold an important key.

A man crouches on the deck of a ship. He is wearing latex gloves and collecting a water sample from a tank.
Posted inNews

Panama’s Coastal Waters Missed Their Annual Cooldown This Year

by Katherine Bourzac 15 October 202515 October 2025

The unprecedented failure of tropical upwelling will likely affect the country’s fisheries. Scientists aren’t certain whether it will happen again next year.

Posts pagination

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Comparing Machine Learning Models of Raindrop Formation

8 July 20268 July 2026
Editors' Highlights

A Satellite-Based Global Carbon Flux Product is Sensitive to Droughts 

8 July 20266 July 2026
Editors' Vox

Small-Scale Indian Ocean Dynamics Underpin Marine Ecology and Climate

4 June 20263 June 2026
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