Polynomial chaos and Bayesian compressive sensing are applied to a land surface model to understand how large numbers of tunable parameters interact and may be optimized.
Modeling
Posted inOpinions
Climate Models Are Uncertain, but We Can Do Something About It
Model simulations of many climate phenomena remain highly uncertain despite scientific advances and huge amounts of data. Scientists must do more to tackle model uncertainty head-on.
Posted inEditors' Vox
The Challenges of Drought Prediction
Advances in dynamical modeling and the use of hybrid methods have improved drought prediction, but challenges still remain to improve the accuracy of drought forecasting.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Medieval Temperature Trends in Africa and Arabia
A synthesis of paleotemperature reconstructions from published case studies suggests warm onshore temperatures persisted across most of Afro-Arabia between 1000 and 1200 CE.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Ocean Wind Satellites Observe an Amazonian Drought
Satellites designed to observe ocean winds can also be used to map both forest structure and water content, allowing researchers to disentangle factors of carbon loss due to drought in the Amazon.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A New Model of Drumlin Formation
Observations from the surge-type glacier Múlajökull in Iceland underpin new modeling results that suggest the glacier’s drumlins grow during quiet intervals of normal flow between glacial surges.
Posted inFeatures
Learning to Form Accurate Mental Models
A cycle of prediction, comparison, and feedback supports spatial learning in geoscience.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Incorporating Physical Processes into Sea Level Projections
Including the effects of physical mechanisms that can quickly increase ice sheet discharge significantly raises sea level rise projections under high-emission scenarios.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
What Will Redwood Trees Do Without Foggy Days?
Coastal California fog—a key source of water for the iconic redwood tree—has declined by a third. Can a trace gas, carbonyl sulfide, be used to assess the effect on plant productivity?
Posted inNews
A Decade of Atmospheric Data Aids Black Hole Observers
Astrophysicists are using a global atmospheric model to help them coordinate a multicontinent, radio-frequency observing campaign to gaze at the black hole at the center of the Milky Way.