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Modeling

Posted inEditors' Highlights

A City’s Challenge of Dealing with Sea Level Rise

by Marc F. P. Bierkens 29 March 201825 May 2022

A well-developed case study in Ho-Chi Min City, Vietnam, exemplifies how other mega-cities located on deltas could face the major challenge of adapting to rising sea-level.

New modeling simulates how faulting and folding around blind faults influence each other.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Model Simulates Faults and Folds Shaping Each Other

Alexandra Branscombe by A. Branscombe 21 March 20186 October 2021

A new model simulates how faulting and folding deep in Earth’s crust shape the way rocks fold and cause earthquakes.

New models could use machine learning techniques to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Next-Generation Climate Models Could Learn, Improve on the Fly

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 21 March 201814 June 2022

Scientists propose development of new models that use machine learning techniques to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Improving Temperature Forecasts in the Upper Atmosphere

by D. J. Knipp 19 March 201810 February 2023

Scientists are blending output from multi-year model runs to improve temperature forecasts in regions where satellites experience “drag,” in the hopes of avoiding future spacecraft collisions.

Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site, Boulder, Colorado
Posted inScience Updates

Modeling Global Change Ecology in a High–Carbon Dioxide World

by S. J. Cheng, N. G. Smith and A. R. Marklein 16 March 201821 March 2022

Ignite-style Session, Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting; Portland, Oregon, 11 August 2017

Researchers compare two model scenarios to assess the role of a “moist shell” in storm development
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Modeling Storm Evolution

by S. Witman 6 March 201831 January 2023

A “moist shell” makes all the difference in how some storms evolve.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

A Powerful New Tool to Analyze and Calibrate Earth System Models

by P. A. Dirmeyer 6 March 20189 March 2023

Polynomial chaos and Bayesian compressive sensing are applied to a land surface model to understand how large numbers of tunable parameters interact and may be optimized.

As climate models become more complex, how do we ensure that predictions remain robust? We shift our focus
Posted inOpinions

Climate Models Are Uncertain, but We Can Do Something About It

by K. S. Carslaw, L. A. Lee, L. A. Regayre and J. S. Johnson 26 February 201824 March 2023

Model simulations of many climate phenomena remain highly uncertain despite scientific advances and huge amounts of data. Scientists must do more to tackle model uncertainty head-on.

Drought is an absence of water but it is actually a complex phenomenon and one of the most poorly understood natural hazards
Posted inEditors' Vox

The Challenges of Drought Prediction

by Z. Hao 16 February 20186 February 2023

Advances in dynamical modeling and the use of hybrid methods have improved drought prediction, but challenges still remain to improve the accuracy of drought forecasting.

Researchers trace medieval temperature trends across Africa and Arabia
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Medieval Temperature Trends in Africa and Arabia

by Terri Cook 9 February 201821 February 2023

A synthesis of paleotemperature reconstructions from published case studies suggests warm onshore temperatures persisted across most of Afro-Arabia between 1000 and 1200 CE.

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