Graph from the study.
This figure shows model projections of how atmospheric rivers are expected to affect Greenland’s surface melt, snowfall, and overall ice balance from 2015 to 2100. The results are shown for both high and low elevations on the ice sheet. Dotted areas mark where the projected end-of-century changes are not statistically different from today, and crosshatched areas mark where they are not significantly different from conditions during the Last Interglacial. Credit: Schnaubelt et al. [2025], Figure 5g
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: AGU Advances

In a new study, Schnaubelt et al. [2025] examine how ‘atmospheric rivers’—bands of storms that carry large amounts of moisture through the atmosphere—impacted the Greenland Ice Sheet during a past warm period called the Last Interglacial, about 130,000 to 115,000 years ago. Using detailed computer models of Earth’s climate, the researchers find that changes in Earth’s orbit and atmospheric moisture controlled the timing and intensity of these storm systems reaching Greenland.

Early in the Last Interglacial, more atmospheric rivers occurred during summer months, causing significant melting around the ice sheet’s edges. Later in the period, atmospheric rivers became more frequent in winter, bringing increased snowfall instead.

The authors also find that conditions during that ancient warm period were similar to what scientists expect in future climate scenarios. This suggests that increased atmospheric moisture in the Arctic and more summertime atmospheric rivers will accelerate Greenland’s ice sheet melting in the coming centuries. By comparing past and future climates, this research shows how large-scale storm patterns and moisture transport influence ice sheet stability in a warming world.

Citation: Schnaubelt, J. C., Tabor, C. R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., & Lora, J. M. (2025). Atmospheric river impacts on the Greenland ice sheet through the Last Interglacial. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001653. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001653

—Francois Primeau, Editor, AGU Advances

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