Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Mesoscale thunderstorms over North America have been observed to sometimes precede poor weather forecasts over Europe. Lojko et al.  use a case study to illustrate how errors in a mesoscale system can amplify errors in larger-scale synoptic waves downstream. They show that air motion with a signature of intense clockwise circulation at the top of severe thunderstorms can rapidly expand into synoptic scales (about 1,000 kilometers). This can cause forecast error in the jet stream and significantly modify its downwind evolution over the Atlantic. This study provides a bridge between global models that are starting to move into resolutions with convective systems partially resolved and the mesoscale models that resolve mesoscale convective systems to improve numerical weather prediction.
Citation: Lojko, A., Payne, A., & Jablonowski, C. (2022). The remote role of North-American mesoscale convective systems on the forecast of a Rossby wave packet: A multi-model ensemble case-study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD037171. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037171
—Minghua Zhang, outgoing Editor in Chief, JGR: Atmospheres