Ensemble forecasts can help scientists understand how uncertainty in model inputs (left) can result in forecast uncertainty (right). Credit: Murray, 2018, Figure 3
Source: Space Weather

Ensemble forecasting has long been used in terrestrial weather forecasting but Murray [2018] introduces this methodology to the space weather community. The author explains the importance of combining many predictions to create an ensemble forecast, a technique best known in hurricane prediction models. The history of these methods in the terrestrial weather community is reviewed and the case is made that space weather is now ready to broadly apply ensemble modeling to improve results over existing deterministic forecasts. This paper is timely because of the explosion of forecast and validation methods in the space weather community, which will soon turn to ensemble forecasts to drive next generation tools.

Citation: Murray, S. A. [2018]. The importance of ensemble techniques for operational space weather forecasting. Space Weather, 16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001861

—Daniel T. Welling, Editor, Space Weather

Text © 2018. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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