Two maps of Europe showing the fraction of days during May-August 2018 when estimated soil moisture fell below a critical threshold based on daily maximum temperature (top) and evaporative fraction (bottom) compared to the 1979-2018 average.
The fraction of days during May-August 2018 when estimated soil moisture fell below a critical threshold based on daily maximum temperature (top) and evaporative fraction (bottom) compared to the 1979-2018 average. The red areas show that large portions of northern Europe experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of critically dry soil days; these are regions where land-atmosphere feedbacks could have exacerbated hot conditions in 2018. Credit: Dirmeyer et al. [2021], Figure 7
Source: AGU Advances

Northern Europe is not a place we think of as experiencing water limitation. In this normally damp and cloudy region, increases in air temperature or sunlight are correlated with higher evapotranspiration rates and increased humidity surface humidity. During the anomalously dry summer of 2018, however, Dirmeyer et al. [2021] show that soil moisture in Great Britain and large parts of Northern Europe dropped below a threshold where increasing air temperatures no longer correlated with surface humidity. Instead, these regions switched a water limited regime, where evapotranspiration could not cool the surface as efficiently. This further exacerbated extreme hot and dry conditions, a net positive feedback.

In the accompanying viewpoint, Orth [2021] highlights the importance of identifying such thresholds in coupling energy and water balance between soils, plants and the atmosphere, and how improved models can help predict the course of future, increasingly common, weather extremes.

Citation: Dirmeyer, P., Balsamo, G., Blyth, E., Morrison, R. & Cooper, H. [2021]. Land-Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave over Northern Europe during Summer 2018. AGU Advances, 2, e2020AV000283. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020AV000283

—Susan Trumbore, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

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