Projections for increases in protein production, methane emissions, and the effects of improving efficiency on reducing livestock methane emissions
Projections from the most recent method of accounting used in this paper for increases in protein production, methane emissions, and the effects of improving efficiency on reducing livestock methane emissions for all livestock under business-as-usual scenarios. The black lines indicate the protein production (x-axis) and methane emission (y-axis) from 2012 (start of black lines) to 2050 (dots). The downward arrows indicate the emission reduction potential by 2050 due to improving efficiency compared to a baseline assumption of constant future emission intensity. Note that there is considerable opportunity to reduce emissions in the ten countries plotted (identified by 3-letter country codes for BRAzil, CHiNa, INDia, IRaN, MAR-Morocco, MaDaGascar, NigER, TURkey, TanZAnia, ZAF-South Africa). The red-yellow-violet color scheme of the arrows represents the mitigation potential, from large to small. The number in the lower right – 65% – indicates the contribution of these ten countries in global total mitigation potential from improved livestock management. Similar estimates are made in the paper for each individual livestock type. Credit: Chang et al. [2021], Figure 5
Source: AGU Advances

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and livestock produce one-third of anthropogenic methane emissions. Chang et al. [2021] quantify the potential for mitigating methane emissions through continued improvement in livestock management practices that reduce the amount of methane emitted per kilogram of livestock protein produced. This emphasis on production efficiency is shown to offer the greatest potential to reduce methane emissions as the demand for livestock products grows in a prosperous world. Some of the largest mitigation opportunities are in developing countries where livestock production is expected to grow but efficiencies are currently low.

Citation: Chang, J., Peng, S., Yin, Y., Ciais, P., Havlík, P. & Herrero, M. [2021]. The key role of production efficiency changes in livestock methane emission mitigation. AGU Advances, 2, e2021AV000391. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000391

—Eric Davidson, Editor, AGU Advances

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