A new method uses Bayesian inference to jointly invert for non-planar fault geometry and spatially variable slip (with associated uncertainties) in earthquake source modeling, based on geodetic data.
Bayesian analyses
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A New Method Produces Improved Surface Strain Rate Maps
The transdimensional Bayesian approach handles GPS data limitations better than existing methods and may assist future seismic hazard assessment studies.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Tracing Water from River to Aquifer
A new technique using dissolved noble gas tracers sheds light on how water moves through an aquifer, with implications for water resources and their vulnerability to climate change.
Posted inEditors' Vox
Quantifying Uncertainty About Earth’s Resources
A new book explores how uncertainty quantification can enable optimal decisions in the exploration, appraisal, and development of subsurface resources.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
A Powerful New Tool to Analyze and Calibrate Earth System Models
Polynomial chaos and Bayesian compressive sensing are applied to a land surface model to understand how large numbers of tunable parameters interact and may be optimized.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
How Vague Historical Writings Help Scientists Predict Floods
By including imprecise historical written records in their calculations, researchers were able to decrease uncertainty in estimations of future flood frequency.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A New Tool to Better Forecast Volcanic Unrest
In a retrospective study of volcanic unrest at Indonesia's Kawah Ijen, a new model was able to pick up on the rising probability of eruption 2 months before authorities were aware of the risk.
Posted inScience Updates
Enhancing Safety in a Volcano's Shadow
A new project gives civil authorities and scientists a common set of tools for assessing volcanic hazards and managing associated risks.
Posted inScience Updates
Better Forecasting for the Next Volcanic Eruption
The Eruptive Precursors project in Campi Flegrei, Italy, seeks to understand conditions leading to caldera eruptions.