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Bayesian analyses

Waves wash up around the base of a lifeguard tower that says “5 Torrey Pines. No lifeguard on duty.”
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Making Sense of Shallow-Water Waves with Advanced Statistics

by Matthew R. Francis 23 September 202623 September 2026

Low-frequency infragravity waves shape shorelines, but exactly how they contribute is mysterious. A technique from Bayesian probability theory might change that.

A rocky valley between two mountain ridges with a collection of snow at the bottom in partial Sun. A person is walking on the snow in the distance.
Posted inNews

Scientists Mapped a Hidden Glacier Using Gravity

by Grace van Deelen 17 September 202617 September 2026

Rock glaciers like Timpanogos in Utah are a jumble of ice and stone. A new method could finally show just how much water these glaciers hold.

Earthquake maps and graphs from the article.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Reading Fault Stress from the Rhythm of Earthquakes

by Bogdan Enescu 16 September 202615 September 2026

T-rate, a new Bayesian tool that reconstructs changing fault stress from earthquake rates, reveals a late stress increase before the 2008 Reno–Mogul magnitude 5.1 earthquake.

Depiction of geophysical measurements being taken on a cross section of Earth's crust.
Posted inEditors' Vox

How Can We Make Better Decisions About What Lies Underground?

by Mingliang Liu, Dario Grana, Klaus Mosegaard, Mrinal K. Sen, Minghui Xu and Tapan Mukerji 10 September 202615 September 2026

Geophysical data offer incomplete clues about the subsurface. Bayesian inversion turns them into plausible scenarios and shows which uncertainties matter for real-world decisions.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Taming the Seismicity Tsunami with a Scalable Bayesian Framework

by Hsin-Hua Huang 7 April 202615 September 2026

By combining the power of artificial intelligence with advanced physics simulations, a new framework called “SPIDER” allows us to map seismic activity with unprecedented clarity.

A spray of water droplets falls onto a city street on a sunny day in front of a brown, multistory building. A crowd of people and dogs watch and play in the spray.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Extreme Heat in U.S. Cities Revealed at High Resolution

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 10 September 202515 September 2026

Data from personal weather stations power a novel way to detect urban heat islands.

Remote sensing image of the Pan-Third Pole region
Posted inEditors' Vox

Harmonizing Theory and Data with Land Data Assimilation

by Xin Li and Feng Liu 7 May 202415 September 2026

Land data assimilation advances scientific understanding and serves as an engineering tool for land surface process studies, reflecting the trend of harmonizing theory and data in the big data era.

Two graphs from the paper.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Using Bayesian Estimation to Improve Methane Inventories

by Donald Wuebbles 21 August 202315 September 2026

A Bayesian, optimal estimation evaluation of state-of-the-art methane inventory with satellite-based emissions from 2009 to 2018 finds substantial differences for livestock, rice, and coal emissions.

View of the half-illuminated Moon surrounded by black space
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Visualizing the Deep Insides of Planets and Moons

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 10 August 202315 September 2026

A novel method uses gravity data to determine where density anomalies lie inside planetary bodies.

Graphs from the paper
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Using Bayesian Inference to Improve Sediment-Transport Models

by Terence O'Kane 6 July 202315 September 2026

A new Bayesian approach is used for the estimation and uncertainty quantification of unobservable parameters required to model tracer evolution in ocean sediment transport and tracer concentrations.

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Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Mapping Childhood Lead Exposure Risk in the United States, Neighborhood by Neighborhood

8 October 20268 October 2026
Editors' Highlights

Limits of Satellite Detection of Extreme Carbon Cycle Events

7 October 20267 October 2026
Editors' Vox

Where Fire Ends, Chemistry Begins

30 September 202630 September 2026
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