NOAA’s winter forecasts are less confident than usual except in Alaska and Hawaii. Expect to see a lot of weather variability in the coming months.
forecasting
Posted inNews
Artificial Intelligence May Help Predict El Niño
Deep learning techniques give scientists the longest–lead time forecasts yet.
Posted inNews
Forecasting Solar Storms in Real Time
Predicting when solar storms will hit Earth remains a tricky business. To help, scientists can now submit their forecasts of coronal mass ejections online as they unfold in real time.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Salinity from Space Improves El Niño Forecasts
Assimilating satellite observations of ocean surface salinity significantly improves coupled model forecasts of El Niño.
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Gulf Dead Zone Looms Large in 2019
A new forecast predicts widespread hypoxia after a wet Midwest spring.
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Contrails’ Climate Impact Could Triple by 2050
Contrail cirrus clouds have warmed the atmosphere more than all the carbon dioxide from planes since the dawn of aviation and will do so even more in the future.
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Predicting Wave Wash Overs for Sea Turtle Nests
To better protect coastal species, researchers developed a model that predicts harmful wash overs with 83% accuracy.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Calculating the Risk of Rare Floods
The first spatially realistic catalog of synthetic flood event risk across the entire United States uncovers high-risk areas and estimates the probability of another Katrina–level flood loss.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
New Observations of Thunderstorm Updrafts and Downdrafts
Unique measurements of air motion within deep convective clouds offer new insights in our understanding of these storms and provide constraints for weather and climate prediction.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Using Multiple Models to Improve Seasonal Forecasting
The first study to examine the ability of a suite of general circulation models to predict sudden warmings in Earth’s stratosphere highlights the potential for improving Northern Hemisphere forecasts.