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forecasting

Lightning flashes during a tornadic storm in Oklahoma.
Posted inFeatures

Lightning Research Flashes Forward

Heather Goss, AGU Publisher by Heather Goss 24 April 202017 August 2022

A greater understanding of lightning mechanisms is spurring the development of more accurate weather forecasting, increased public health precautions, and a more sophisticated understanding of lightning itself.

Sakurajima volcano emits a cloud of ash
Posted inNews

Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions?

Mara Johnson-Groh, Science Writer by Mara Johnson-Groh 21 April 20203 January 2023

A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt.

Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea in 2018
Posted inResearch Spotlights

An Element of Randomness in Modeling Arctic Ice Cover

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 14 April 202018 October 2022

Incorporating random variation of temperature, humidity, and wind offers a computationally cheap alternative to improving resolution in an Earth system model when predicting when Arctic sea ice will disappear.

Huge cumulonimbus clouds advance on jetties in the Baltic Sea
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Machine Learning Improves Weather and Climate Models

Kate Wheeling, freelance science writer by Kate Wheeling 7 April 202029 September 2021

New research evaluates the performance of generative adversarial networks for stochastic parameterizations.

Photograph taken from the International Space Station of clouds over the Amazon Basin
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Evaluating Cloud Cover Predictions in Climate Models

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 23 March 202013 March 2023

A new analysis highlights progress in predictions of cloud cover from models that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

frost on frozen bubble
Posted inNews

Combining AI and Analog Forecasting to Predict Extreme Weather

Richard Sima, freelance science writer by Richard J. Sima 4 March 202022 December 2021

New deep learning technique brings an obsolete forecasting method “back to life” to predict extreme weather events.

Bolts of lightning strike a Swiss valley at night
Posted inNews

New Study Hints at Bespoke Future of Lightning Forecasting

Jon Kelvey, Science Writer by Jon Kelvey 13 February 202025 July 2022

Researchers used machine learning to develop a model that can predict lightning strikes to within 30 minutes of their occurrence and within 30 kilometers of a weather station by using just four simple atmospheric measurements.

Charts relating to the results presented in Kim et al. [2019]
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Emerging Controversy in Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction

by C. Zhang 5 February 20206 March 2023

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation modulates the Madden-Julian Oscillation in observations, but it does not significantly influence prediction skills in a multi-model assessment.

Smoke rises from burning palm trees
Posted inFeatures

What Is Left in the Air After a Wildfire Depends on Exactly What Burned

Megan Sever, Science Writer by Megan Sever 23 January 202016 March 2022

Forecasting air quality after a wildfire is improving, thanks to more-refined models that measure the biomass going into the blaze and the emissions coming out.

Graphs showing how accurately four different models predict seasonal climate change.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Extreme Summer Heat over Europe Is Predictable Week-to-Week

by Alessandra Giannini 26 November 201914 February 2023

Forecasts made one to a few weeks in advance, known as “subseasonal to seasonal” predictions, show more skill in predicting extreme summer heat waves over Europe than spells of normal or cold weather.

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