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forecasting

Plot showing seismicity near Mount Rinjani volcanoat Lombok Island, Indonesia, during July-September 2018
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Relating Seismicity and Volcano Eruptions

by I. Zaliapin 7 April 202112 January 2022

A global study suggests that volcanic eruption forecasting and detection may be improved by examining earthquake mechanisms and clustering in combination with individual volcano properties.

An airplane flies low over ice with the sun shining through clouds in the background
Posted inFeatures

Glimpsing the Ins and Outs of the Arctic Atmospheric Cauldron

by M. Wendisch, D. Handorf, I. Tegen, R. A. J. Neggers and G. Spreen 16 March 202119 September 2022

Specially equipped aircraft will follow air masses into and out of the Arctic, observing their transformations and improving our knowledge of the Arctic climate and its global influence.

Redoubt Volcano on the west side of Cook Inlet, Alaska, erupts in March 2009.
Posted inNews

Volcanic Lands Warm Before Eruptions

by A. Papp 12 March 20212 May 2022

Satellite data have revealed that ground radiant temperatures around volcanoes rose in the years leading up to eruptions. The observation may help in forecasting future volcanic activity.

Aerial photograph of the Xin’an River Hydropower Station showing the dam that forms Qiandao Lake releasing flood waters into the river below.
Posted inNews

Finding “Glocal” Solutions to Flooding Problems

by Alka Tripathy-Lang 3 February 202120 May 2022

Scientists call for joint efforts to combine real-time global rainfall data with high-resolution local hydrology to better forecast floods.

Pair of images depicting Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities disturbed by background atmospheric gravity waves in the atmosphere (left) and in a simulation (right)
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Newly Identified Instabilities Enhance Atmospheric Turbulence

by Morgan Rehnberg 12 January 202114 February 2022

New high-resolution imaging and modeling reveal the first evidence of enhanced turbulence due to gravity wave modulation of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities.

Wall of dust wells up behind suburban desert homes
Posted inNews

Saving Lives by Predicting Dust Storms

by Jackie Rocheleau 14 December 20202 March 2023

In the southwestern United States, dust storms form suddenly, quickly reducing visibility to zero. A new warning system may allow motorists to avoid these deadly hazards.

Light clouds sit high in the sky on an otherwise sunny day
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Boosting Weather Prediction with Machine Learning

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 25 November 202028 March 2023

WeatherBench is a data set compiled to serve as a standard for evaluating new approaches to artificial intelligence–driven weather forecasting.

The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy sails through sea ice in the Beaufort Sea
Posted inFeatures

A 50-Year-Old Global Warming Forecast That Still Holds Up

by A. Lapenis 25 November 20209 December 2022

In 1972, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko used a simple methodology to make climate predictions that remain surprisingly accurate today and that could serve as a new “business-as-usual” scenario.

A rainy day outside the Mall of the Emirates in Dubai
Posted inNews

Can Newspaper Reporting Uncover Flood Risk?

Sarah Derouin, Science Writer by Sarah Derouin 2 November 202027 March 2023

In areas of low or no flood monitoring, archival coverage of historical flooding can help scientists make better risk predictions.

The skyline of Panama City, Panama, with fishing boats in the foreground
Posted inScience Updates

Torrential Rains and Poor Forecasts Sink Panama’s Infrastructure

by A. Bezanilla-Morlot, A. Centella-Artola, M. Sierra-Lorenzo and I. Borrajero-Montejo 27 October 20209 March 2023

Scientists are working to improve the forecasting of heavy rains in Panama following several events over the past decade that caused substantial flooding and damage.

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Editors' Vox

Hydrothermal Circulation and Its Impact on the Earth System

3 December 20253 December 2025
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