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forecasting

A mass of steaming, orange-glowing lava consumes a street sign as it flows over a roadway.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

A Better Operational Lava Flow Model

by Morgan Rehnberg 26 October 202226 October 2022

By segmenting the vertical structure of a lava flow, the Lava2d model provides more realism to operational lava forecasts.

A photo of a hurricane from space.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

What is the Best Predictor of Landfalling Hurricane Damage?

by Jonathan Zawislak 21 October 202218 October 2022

A new study finds that the minimum sea level pressure, as another measure of hurricane strength, is a better predictor of hurricane damage in the United States than the maximum sustained wind speed.

A steplike fracture in the soil in the foreground of a vineyard
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Slight Shifts in Magnetic Field Preceded California Earthquakes

Joshua Learn, Science Writer by Joshua Rapp Learn 6 October 20226 October 2022

Magnetometers detected faint signals that with further study, may improve our understanding of what happens before earthquakes and offer promise for early detection.

A map showing global land cover and two graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Vegetation Carries the Signature of Recent Precipitation

by Valeriy Ivanov 3 October 202228 September 2022

Vegetation response to precipitation is important for near-term weather predictability, and researchers show that such a response can occur within a few days and last up to two months.

The uninhabited island of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai was destroyed by the massive volcanic eruption in January 2022.
Posted inNews

People Need to Think Bigger About Volcanic Catastrophes

by Katharine Gammon 22 September 202222 September 2022

New research outlines the risk of catastrophic eruptions and urges policymakers to support more widespread monitoring.

Six graphs showing the correlation skill between the new hindcasts SEAS5-20C and the reanalysis CERA-20C.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill Over the 20th Century

by Suzana Camargo 21 September 20226 March 2023

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is examined in a new global coupled retrospective forecast ensemble for the 20th Century.

Maps overlain with prediction accuracy.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Quantifying Changes in Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill

by Suzana Camargo 9 September 202230 September 2022

The differences between future and present subseasonal predictability in the Northern Hemisphere provided by the tropics are evaluated using neural networks.

We are in the middle of solar cycle 25, which means that the Sun has been slowly ramping up its sunspot and flare activity for the past few years.
Posted inFeatures

11 Discoveries Awaiting Us at Solar Max

Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Writing and Production Intern for Eos.org by Kimberly M. S. Cartier 25 August 202230 September 2022

Each solar cycle might seem like the same old story, but one thing has changed significantly since the previous solar maximum–our technology.

Four radar reflectivity diagrams.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advanced Real-Time Prediction of Storms With 30-Second Refresh

by Jiwen Fan 19 August 202228 September 2022

A new-generation weather radar and a massive supercomputing system enables forecasts of storms refreshed every 30 seconds, a significant development in severe weather prediction.

Diagram from the paper showing how the new algorithm builds graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

AI Algorithm Provides More Accurate Forecasts of Water Use

by Jim Hall 29 July 202214 February 2023

The new graph convolutional recurrent neural network (GCRNN) will enable water utilities to forecast water use, even if some sensors fail.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

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Improving Eddy Tower Evapotranspiration Estimates

20 May 202620 May 2026
Editors' Highlights

Recycled Rocks Reveal Subduction Zone Dynamics Off Baja California

21 May 202621 May 2026
Editors' Vox

The Impact of Advocacy: American Geophysical Union’s Days of Action

14 May 202613 May 2026
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