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forecasting

Six graphs showing the correlation skill between the new hindcasts SEAS5-20C and the reanalysis CERA-20C.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill Over the 20th Century

by Suzana Camargo 21 September 20226 March 2023

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is examined in a new global coupled retrospective forecast ensemble for the 20th Century.

Maps overlain with prediction accuracy.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Quantifying Changes in Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill

by Suzana Camargo 9 September 202230 September 2022

The differences between future and present subseasonal predictability in the Northern Hemisphere provided by the tropics are evaluated using neural networks.

We are in the middle of solar cycle 25, which means that the Sun has been slowly ramping up its sunspot and flare activity for the past few years.
Posted inFeatures

11 Discoveries Awaiting Us at Solar Max

Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Writing and Production Intern for Eos.org by Kimberly M. S. Cartier 25 August 202230 September 2022

Each solar cycle might seem like the same old story, but one thing has changed significantly since the previous solar maximum–our technology.

Four radar reflectivity diagrams.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advanced Real-Time Prediction of Storms With 30-Second Refresh

by Jiwen Fan 19 August 202228 September 2022

A new-generation weather radar and a massive supercomputing system enables forecasts of storms refreshed every 30 seconds, a significant development in severe weather prediction.

Diagram from the paper showing how the new algorithm builds graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

AI Algorithm Provides More Accurate Forecasts of Water Use

by Jim Hall 29 July 202214 February 2023

The new graph convolutional recurrent neural network (GCRNN) will enable water utilities to forecast water use, even if some sensors fail.

Diagrams showing the model fields used in the study.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Landfalling Hurricanes Intensify Due to Coastal Downwelling

by Suzana Camargo 26 July 202221 September 2022

Hurricane winds can lead to coast downwelling, which brings warmer surface water near the coast and can contribute to the intensification of the landfalling hurricane.

Fiona Lo presenting her Ph.D. thesis at the American Meteorological Society annual conference.
Posted inFeatures

Fiona Lo: A “Really Long, Convoluted Path” to Health

Richard Sima, freelance science writer by Richard J. Sima 25 July 20227 February 2023

Lo uses her background in atmospheric sciences to forecast pollen concentrations.

Diagram showing the three barriers in seasonal forecast and the Conditional Generative Forecasting methodology developed to tackle these three barriers.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Learning from Climate Simulations for Global Seasonal Forecast

by Jiwen Fan 23 June 202222 December 2022

A probabilistic deep learning methodology that learns from climate simulation big data offers advantageous seasonal forecasting skill and crucial climate model diagnosis information at a global scale.

Photograph of migrating sand shoals
Posted inEditors' Vox

Can We Better Predict Coastal Change?

by Jaap Nienhuis, Florent Grasso, Evan B. Goldstein, Robert Kopp, Kristen Splinter and Kristy Tiampo 17 June 20221 August 2022

A new special collection invites studies on a new era of models and knowledge that provide predictions or insights into predictability in coastal geomorphology.

A view from underwater, looking through blue water, ripples, and bubbles toward light at the surface
Posted inNews

Loss of Ocean Memory Has Implications from Forecasting to Conservation

Ilima Loomis, Science Writer by Ilima Loomis 10 June 202227 March 2023

New research indicates climate change may thin the mixed layer and contribute to a reduction of sea surface temperature anomalies.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

How Internal Waves Transport Energy Thousands of Miles Across the Ocean

26 March 202626 March 2026
Editors' Highlights

Simplified Noon-Temperature Calculations for Planetary Bodies   

26 March 202626 March 2026
Editors' Vox

The Future of Earth’s Future

24 March 202624 March 2026
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