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forecasting

Four radar reflectivity diagrams.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advanced Real-Time Prediction of Storms With 30-Second Refresh

by Jiwen Fan 19 August 202228 September 2022

A new-generation weather radar and a massive supercomputing system enables forecasts of storms refreshed every 30 seconds, a significant development in severe weather prediction.

Diagram from the paper showing how the new algorithm builds graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

AI Algorithm Provides More Accurate Forecasts of Water Use

by Jim Hall 29 July 202214 February 2023

The new graph convolutional recurrent neural network (GCRNN) will enable water utilities to forecast water use, even if some sensors fail.

Diagrams showing the model fields used in the study.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Landfalling Hurricanes Intensify Due to Coastal Downwelling

by Suzana Camargo 26 July 202221 September 2022

Hurricane winds can lead to coast downwelling, which brings warmer surface water near the coast and can contribute to the intensification of the landfalling hurricane.

Fiona Lo presenting her Ph.D. thesis at the American Meteorological Society annual conference.
Posted inFeatures

Fiona Lo: A “Really Long, Convoluted Path” to Health

Richard Sima, freelance science writer by Richard J. Sima 25 July 20227 February 2023

Lo uses her background in atmospheric sciences to forecast pollen concentrations.

Diagram showing the three barriers in seasonal forecast and the Conditional Generative Forecasting methodology developed to tackle these three barriers.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Learning from Climate Simulations for Global Seasonal Forecast

by Jiwen Fan 23 June 202222 December 2022

A probabilistic deep learning methodology that learns from climate simulation big data offers advantageous seasonal forecasting skill and crucial climate model diagnosis information at a global scale.

Photograph of migrating sand shoals
Posted inEditors' Vox

Can We Better Predict Coastal Change?

by Jaap Nienhuis, Florent Grasso, Evan B. Goldstein, Robert Kopp, Kristen Splinter and Kristy Tiampo 17 June 20221 August 2022

A new special collection invites studies on a new era of models and knowledge that provide predictions or insights into predictability in coastal geomorphology.

A view from underwater, looking through blue water, ripples, and bubbles toward light at the surface
Posted inNews

Loss of Ocean Memory Has Implications from Forecasting to Conservation

Ilima Loomis, Science Writer by Ilima Loomis 10 June 202227 March 2023

New research indicates climate change may thin the mixed layer and contribute to a reduction of sea surface temperature anomalies.

Figures from the paper, showing simulated Ural blocking event.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Arctic Sea Ice is Crucial for Forecasting Ural Blocking

by Yimin Liu 12 May 202221 December 2022

By solving the nonlinear optimization problem, sea ice concentration in Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk Seas is found crucial for prediction of strong and long-lasting Ural blocking formation.

Hurricane Irma battering Saint Martin in the Caribbean.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

The AI Forecaster: Machine Learning Takes On Weather Prediction

Aaron Sidder, freelance science writer by Aaron Sidder 6 January 202226 April 2022

A novel approach to weather forecasting uses convolutional neural networks to generate exceptionally fast global forecasts based on past weather data.

Map showing 36-hour track forecast for Typhoon Maria and chart showing track errors for different experiments.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Impact of Geostationary Sounder on Typhoon Forecasts

by Suzana Camargo 24 November 202126 April 2022

An analysis of the impact of targeted observations from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder at high-temporal resolution on forecasts for Typhoon Maria in 2018.

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