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forecasting

Fiona Lo presenting her Ph.D. thesis at the American Meteorological Society annual conference.
Posted inFeatures

Fiona Lo: A “Really Long, Convoluted Path” to Health

Richard Sima, freelance science writer by Richard J. Sima 25 July 20227 February 2023

Lo uses her background in atmospheric sciences to forecast pollen concentrations.

Diagram showing the three barriers in seasonal forecast and the Conditional Generative Forecasting methodology developed to tackle these three barriers.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Learning from Climate Simulations for Global Seasonal Forecast

by Jiwen Fan 23 June 202222 December 2022

A probabilistic deep learning methodology that learns from climate simulation big data offers advantageous seasonal forecasting skill and crucial climate model diagnosis information at a global scale.

Photograph of migrating sand shoals
Posted inEditors' Vox

Can We Better Predict Coastal Change?

by Jaap Nienhuis, Florent Grasso, Evan B. Goldstein, Robert Kopp, Kristen Splinter and Kristy Tiampo 17 June 20221 August 2022

A new special collection invites studies on a new era of models and knowledge that provide predictions or insights into predictability in coastal geomorphology.

A view from underwater, looking through blue water, ripples, and bubbles toward light at the surface
Posted inNews

Loss of Ocean Memory Has Implications from Forecasting to Conservation

Ilima Loomis, Science Writer by Ilima Loomis 10 June 202227 March 2023

New research indicates climate change may thin the mixed layer and contribute to a reduction of sea surface temperature anomalies.

Figures from the paper, showing simulated Ural blocking event.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Arctic Sea Ice is Crucial for Forecasting Ural Blocking

by Yimin Liu 12 May 202221 December 2022

By solving the nonlinear optimization problem, sea ice concentration in Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk Seas is found crucial for prediction of strong and long-lasting Ural blocking formation.

Hurricane Irma battering Saint Martin in the Caribbean.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

The AI Forecaster: Machine Learning Takes On Weather Prediction

Aaron Sidder, freelance science writer by Aaron Sidder 6 January 202226 April 2022

A novel approach to weather forecasting uses convolutional neural networks to generate exceptionally fast global forecasts based on past weather data.

Map showing 36-hour track forecast for Typhoon Maria and chart showing track errors for different experiments.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Impact of Geostationary Sounder on Typhoon Forecasts

by Suzana Camargo 24 November 202126 April 2022

An analysis of the impact of targeted observations from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder at high-temporal resolution on forecasts for Typhoon Maria in 2018.

A van drives through a flooded street in downtown Miami on a sunny day.
Posted inFeatures

The Benefits of Better Ocean Weather Forecasting

by Charlotte DeMott, Ángel G. Muñoz, Christopher D. Roberts, Claire M. Spillman and F. Vitart 12 November 202118 October 2022

Improvements in our ability to forecast oceanic conditions weeks to months in advance will help communities, industries, and other groups prepare amid a changing climate.

Series of charts from the paper by Feng et al.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

A New Way to Represent Microphysical Uncertainty

by Jiwen Fan 2 November 202111 August 2022

A new way of representing microphysical uncertainty in convective-scale data assimilation reduces biases in model states and improves the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecasts.

A boat floats between flood buildings, with people walking on the sidewalks and across a bridge.
Posted inNews

For Venice’s Floodgates to Work, Better Forecasts Are Needed

Damond Benningfield, Science Writer by Damond Benningfield 14 October 202129 March 2023

Climate change increases massive storm surges, which may be more than Venice’s flood-control system can handle.

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