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forecasting

Satellite image of tan whisps of clouds over green land. There is brown land to the right and blue ocean to the left.
Posted inNews

Extreme Wildfires Make Their Own Weather

by Elise Cutts 8 March 202313 March 2023

Extreme fires in the western United States and Southeast Asia influenced the local weather in ways that make fires and smoke pollution worse.

Aerial photo of the San Andreas Fault
Posted inNews

Accounting for Offbeat Earthquakes Could Improve Forecasts

by Erin Martin-Jones 2 March 20232 March 2023

A new model considers the full history of earthquakes on a fault, improving forecasts of when the next will strike.

Four bar graphs from the paper.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

A New Coupled Modeling System Improves Forecast Skills

by Minghua Zhang 27 February 202322 February 2023

Building on older versions, the new Global Ensemble Forecast System with coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-ice-wave models has better forecasting skills of the atmosphere than the uncoupled system.

Graphs showing examples of predicted extreme streamflow in catchments.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Predicting Flood Conditions in the Next Few Years

by Valeriy Ivanov 7 February 20237 June 2023

Multiyear flood predictions are possible for watersheds in which the magnitude and frequency of flooding can be related to an atmospheric pressure see-saw in the North Atlantic region.

A drone hovers over a beach.
Posted inNews

Drones Make Weather Prediction Easier at the Poles

by Andrew Chapman 23 December 202223 December 2022

Researchers measured wind speed with a commercially available drone and a lightweight sensor. The approach could help scientists gather more data from remote environments.

3D rendering of Earth
Posted inFeatures

Are We Entering The Golden Age Of Climate Modeling?

Mark Betancourt, Freelance Journalist by Mark Betancourt 21 November 202227 March 2023

Thanks to the advent of exascale computing, local climate forecasts may soon be a reality. And they’re not just for scientists anymore.

A mass of steaming, orange-glowing lava consumes a street sign as it flows over a roadway.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

A Better Operational Lava Flow Model

by Morgan Rehnberg 26 October 202226 October 2022

By segmenting the vertical structure of a lava flow, the Lava2d model provides more realism to operational lava forecasts.

A photo of a hurricane from space.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

What is the Best Predictor of Landfalling Hurricane Damage?

by Jonathan Zawislak 21 October 202218 October 2022

A new study finds that the minimum sea level pressure, as another measure of hurricane strength, is a better predictor of hurricane damage in the United States than the maximum sustained wind speed.

A steplike fracture in the soil in the foreground of a vineyard
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Slight Shifts in Magnetic Field Preceded California Earthquakes

Joshua Learn, Science Writer by Joshua Rapp Learn 6 October 20226 October 2022

Magnetometers detected faint signals that with further study, may improve our understanding of what happens before earthquakes and offer promise for early detection.

A map showing global land cover and two graphs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Vegetation Carries the Signature of Recent Precipitation

by Valeriy Ivanov 3 October 202228 September 2022

Vegetation response to precipitation is important for near-term weather predictability, and researchers show that such a response can occur within a few days and last up to two months.

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Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

New Earthquake Model Goes Against the Grain

27 October 202527 October 2025
Editors' Highlights

New Evidence for a Wobbly Venus?

29 September 202525 September 2025
Editors' Vox

Publishing Participatory Science: The Community Science Exchange

20 October 202517 October 2025
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