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forecasting

A cloudy mountain scene in southern France
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Regional Sensitivities Strongly Affect Modeled Climate Extremes

by David Shultz 22 September 202022 February 2023

Analysis of temperature and precipitation extremes in two generations of CMIP climate models revealed similarities in regional climate sensitivities, contrasting with divergent global sensitivities.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Ensemble Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival at 1 AU

by Mary Hudson 18 September 202031 May 2022

Heliospheric imaging data can be used in ensemble modeling of CME arrival time at Earth to improve space weather forecasts, treating the solar wind as a 1-D incompressible hydrodynamic flow.

Maps showing the data assimilated wavefields at 30 and 120 seconds on the left and the forecasted future wavefields at 200 seconds on the right
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Real-time Ground Motion Estimation for Large Earthquakes

by M. Yamada 31 July 20207 March 2023

Advanced computing technology can be used to forecast ground shaking from earthquakes and provide an early warning in real time.

Schematic of an ensemble forecast where the lines represent trajectories of individual forecasts that diverge from each other owing to uncertainties in the initial conditions
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Advancing Ensemble Methods in Space Weather Forecasting

by Michael A. Hapgood 23 June 202010 February 2023

A short, must-read, report for anyone developing new space weather forecasts.

Artist’s illustration of the Lagrange mission under consideration by the European Space Agency showing two spacecraft situated between the Sun and Earth
Posted inResearch Spotlights

How to Improve Space Weather Forecasting

by Mark Zastrow 19 June 202022 February 2023

The field of space weather forecasting could take cues from its Earthly counterpart to increase the reliability of models as well as warning times ahead of inbound solar storms.

Photo of a tornado
Posted inEditors' Vox

Bridging the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions

by C. Zhang 8 June 202029 March 2022

A special collection on subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction presents the latest progress in filling the gap between short-term weather prediction and longer-term climate prediction.

Diagram showing surface temperatures and winds on 12 February 2000 as predicted by a new machine learning model versus observed conditions on that day
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Improving Atmospheric Forecasts with Machine Learning

Kate Wheeling, freelance science writer by Kate Wheeling 2 June 20208 March 2022

An efficient, low-resolution machine learning model can usefully predict the global atmospheric state as much as 3 days out.

Satellite image of Hurricanes Katia, Irma, and Jose
Posted inNews

NOAA Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

Jenessa Duncombe, Staff Writer by Jenessa Duncombe 21 May 202020 May 2022

FEMA issued new guidance yesterday advising states to prepare for evacuations during the pandemic.

Diagrams illustrating Rossby waves traveling around the Sun and the Earth
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Space Weather Forecasting Takes Inspiration from Meteorology

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 11 May 202029 March 2022

Solar features analogous to major atmospheric waves on Earth could offer more advanced warning of harmful solar storms.

Layers of sediment are exposed on a hillslope in the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Tracing the Past Through Layers of Sediment

Aaron Sidder, freelance science writer by Aaron Sidder 1 May 202022 August 2023

Signals in layers of sedimentary rock hint at climates and ecosystems come and gone. Understanding this history can help us forecast the future, but challenges abound.

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Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Droughts Sync Up as the Climate Changes

18 September 202518 September 2025
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Unexpected Carbonate Phase Revealed by Advanced Simulations

25 September 2025
Editors' Vox

How Glacial Forebulges Shape the Seas and Shake the Earth

23 September 202519 September 2025
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