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forecasting

Hurricane Irma battering Saint Martin in the Caribbean.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

The AI Forecaster: Machine Learning Takes On Weather Prediction

Aaron Sidder, freelance science writer by Aaron Sidder 6 January 202226 April 2022

A novel approach to weather forecasting uses convolutional neural networks to generate exceptionally fast global forecasts based on past weather data.

Map showing 36-hour track forecast for Typhoon Maria and chart showing track errors for different experiments.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Impact of Geostationary Sounder on Typhoon Forecasts

by Suzana Camargo 24 November 202126 April 2022

An analysis of the impact of targeted observations from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder at high-temporal resolution on forecasts for Typhoon Maria in 2018.

A van drives through a flooded street in downtown Miami on a sunny day.
Posted inFeatures

The Benefits of Better Ocean Weather Forecasting

by Charlotte DeMott, Ángel G. Muñoz, Christopher D. Roberts, Claire M. Spillman and F. Vitart 12 November 202118 October 2022

Improvements in our ability to forecast oceanic conditions weeks to months in advance will help communities, industries, and other groups prepare amid a changing climate.

Series of charts from the paper by Feng et al.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

A New Way to Represent Microphysical Uncertainty

by Jiwen Fan 2 November 202111 August 2022

A new way of representing microphysical uncertainty in convective-scale data assimilation reduces biases in model states and improves the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecasts.

A boat floats between flood buildings, with people walking on the sidewalks and across a bridge.
Posted inENGAGE, News

For Venice’s Floodgates to Work, Better Forecasts Are Needed

Damond Benningfield, Science Writer by Damond Benningfield 14 October 202129 March 2023

Climate change increases massive storm surges, which may be more than Venice’s flood-control system can handle.

Aerial view of Lake Oroville near Enterprise Bridge in California on 23 October 2015 showing low water levels
Posted inFeatures

Better Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Water Management

by M. J. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph, D. E. Waliser, J. Jones and M. L. Anderson 23 June 20219 March 2023

Emerging methods that improve precipitation forecasting over weeks to months could support more informed resource management and increase lead times for responding to droughts and floods.

Close-up view of the eye of category 5 Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station in March 2015
Posted inFeatures

Chasing Cyclones from Space

by C. R. Jackson, T. W. Ruff, J. A. Knaff, A. Mouche and C. R. Sampson 2 June 202126 April 2022

The pioneering use of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar to characterize tropical cyclones in near-real time has provided a crucial new tool with which to forecast powerful storms.

A graphical assessment of solar energetic particle forecasts
Posted inEditors' Highlights

How to Assess the Quality of Space Weather Forecasts?

by Michael A. Hapgood 27 May 202122 February 2023

The assessment of space weather event forecasts would benefit from more nuanced approaches that take account of event intensities peaking near the thresholds used to identify such events.

Plot showing seismicity near Mount Rinjani volcanoat Lombok Island, Indonesia, during July-September 2018
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Relating Seismicity and Volcano Eruptions

by I. Zaliapin 7 April 202112 January 2022

A global study suggests that volcanic eruption forecasting and detection may be improved by examining earthquake mechanisms and clustering in combination with individual volcano properties.

An airplane flies low over ice with the sun shining through clouds in the background
Posted inFeatures

Glimpsing the Ins and Outs of the Arctic Atmospheric Cauldron

by M. Wendisch, D. Handorf, I. Tegen, R. A. J. Neggers and G. Spreen 16 March 202119 September 2022

Specially equipped aircraft will follow air masses into and out of the Arctic, observing their transformations and improving our knowledge of the Arctic climate and its global influence.

Posts pagination

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

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27 August 202627 August 2026
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Long-Term Datasets are Essential to Understanding Coastal Change

26 August 202618 August 2026
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24 August 202624 August 2026
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