Incorporating random variation of temperature, humidity, and wind offers a computationally cheap alternative to improving resolution in an Earth system model when predicting when Arctic sea ice will disappear.
forecasting
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Machine Learning Improves Weather and Climate Models
New research evaluates the performance of generative adversarial networks for stochastic parameterizations.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Evaluating Cloud Cover Predictions in Climate Models
A new analysis highlights progress in predictions of cloud cover from models that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Posted inNews
Combining AI and Analog Forecasting to Predict Extreme Weather
New deep learning technique brings an obsolete forecasting method “back to life” to predict extreme weather events.
Posted inNews
New Study Hints at Bespoke Future of Lightning Forecasting
Researchers used machine learning to develop a model that can predict lightning strikes to within 30 minutes of their occurrence and within 30 kilometers of a weather station by using just four simple atmospheric measurements.
![Charts relating to the results presented in Kim et al. [2019]](https://eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019JD031416_Figure-4-sized-for-Eos.png)
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Emerging Controversy in Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation modulates the Madden-Julian Oscillation in observations, but it does not significantly influence prediction skills in a multi-model assessment.
Posted inFeatures
What Is Left in the Air After a Wildfire Depends on Exactly What Burned
Forecasting air quality after a wildfire is improving, thanks to more-refined models that measure the biomass going into the blaze and the emissions coming out.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Extreme Summer Heat over Europe Is Predictable Week-to-Week
Forecasts made one to a few weeks in advance, known as “subseasonal to seasonal” predictions, show more skill in predicting extreme summer heat waves over Europe than spells of normal or cold weather.
Posted inNews
Dire and Drier Future for Lake Victoria
In the past, Lake Victoria dried out swiftly and often when rainfall was limited. Climate change might bring about those conditions again within a century.
Posted inNews
Yet Again, Warmer Winter Looms for U.S.
NOAA’s winter forecasts are less confident than usual except in Alaska and Hawaii. Expect to see a lot of weather variability in the coming months.