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forecasting

Diagrams illustrating Rossby waves traveling around the Sun and the Earth
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Space Weather Forecasting Takes Inspiration from Meteorology

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 11 May 202029 March 2022

Solar features analogous to major atmospheric waves on Earth could offer more advanced warning of harmful solar storms.

Layers of sediment are exposed on a hillslope in the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Tracing the Past Through Layers of Sediment

Aaron Sidder, freelance science writer by Aaron Sidder 1 May 202022 August 2023

Signals in layers of sedimentary rock hint at climates and ecosystems come and gone. Understanding this history can help us forecast the future, but challenges abound.

Lightning flashes during a tornadic storm in Oklahoma.
Posted inFeatures

Lightning Research Flashes Forward

Heather Goss, AGU Publisher by Heather Goss 24 April 202017 August 2022

A greater understanding of lightning mechanisms is spurring the development of more accurate weather forecasting, increased public health precautions, and a more sophisticated understanding of lightning itself.

Sakurajima volcano emits a cloud of ash
Posted inNews

Are Cosmic Rays a Key to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions?

Mara Johnson-Groh, Science Writer by Mara Johnson-Groh 21 April 20203 January 2023

A combination of relativistic particles and artificial intelligence may provide a new way to forecast when a volcano could erupt.

Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea in 2018
Posted inResearch Spotlights

An Element of Randomness in Modeling Arctic Ice Cover

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 14 April 202018 October 2022

Incorporating random variation of temperature, humidity, and wind offers a computationally cheap alternative to improving resolution in an Earth system model when predicting when Arctic sea ice will disappear.

Huge cumulonimbus clouds advance on jetties in the Baltic Sea
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Machine Learning Improves Weather and Climate Models

Kate Wheeling, freelance science writer by Kate Wheeling 7 April 202029 September 2021

New research evaluates the performance of generative adversarial networks for stochastic parameterizations.

Photograph taken from the International Space Station of clouds over the Amazon Basin
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Evaluating Cloud Cover Predictions in Climate Models

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 23 March 202013 March 2023

A new analysis highlights progress in predictions of cloud cover from models that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

frost on frozen bubble
Posted inNews

Combining AI and Analog Forecasting to Predict Extreme Weather

Richard Sima, freelance science writer by Richard J. Sima 4 March 202022 December 2021

New deep learning technique brings an obsolete forecasting method “back to life” to predict extreme weather events.

Bolts of lightning strike a Swiss valley at night
Posted inNews

New Study Hints at Bespoke Future of Lightning Forecasting

Jon Kelvey, Science Writer by Jon Kelvey 13 February 202025 July 2022

Researchers used machine learning to develop a model that can predict lightning strikes to within 30 minutes of their occurrence and within 30 kilometers of a weather station by using just four simple atmospheric measurements.

Charts relating to the results presented in Kim et al. [2019]
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Emerging Controversy in Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction

by C. Zhang 5 February 20206 March 2023

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation modulates the Madden-Julian Oscillation in observations, but it does not significantly influence prediction skills in a multi-model assessment.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Communities Affected by Climate Change Need More Than Data

31 August 202631 August 2026
Editors' Highlights

Long-Term Datasets are Essential to Understanding Coastal Change

26 August 202618 August 2026
Editors' Vox

Decoding Rocks to Reveal What the Critical Zone Hides

31 August 202627 August 2026
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