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forecasting

Engineers decommissioning an ocean bottom seismometer and differential pressure gauge
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Streamlining Rapid Tsunami Forecasting

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 23 May 20168 December 2022

With enough sensors, traditional forecasting methods could be replaced by models continuously updated with real-time wave data.

Estimated pattern of multidecadal internal variability in (top) Pacific and (bottom) Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Was the Recent Slowdown in Surface Warming Predictable?

by Terri Cook 11 May 20163 February 2023

The temporary deceleration in warming across the Northern Hemisphere earlier this century could not have been foreseen by statistical forecasting methods, a new study concludes.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Improving the Identification of Extreme Precipitation Trends in the U.S.

by Terri Cook 14 April 201628 February 2023

By greatly reducing the associated uncertainty, a new model is better able to discern statistically significant trends, offering the potential to improve the seasonal forecasting of rare events.

Posted inScience Updates

Forecasting India's Water Future

by M. d. S. Mesquita, V. Veldore, L. Li, R. Krishnan, Y. Orsolini, R. Senan, M. V. S. Ramarao and E. Viste 31 March 201626 October 2022

The NORINDIA project sheds light on how climate change could affect monsoons, droughts, and glaciers in northern India.

Posted inEditors' Vox

Toward an Understanding of Earth-Affecting Solar Eruptions

by Y. Wang 30 March 201627 April 2022

Coronal mass ejection forecasting improves with technological developments and increasing availability of data.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Could We Have Predicted What El Niño Would Bring?

by W. Yan 22 March 201615 February 2023

Researchers take a retrospective look to see if precipitation and flooding due to El Niño could have been predicted a priori.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Solar Wind Model Could Improve Space Weather Forecasts

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 26 February 201618 October 2022

Real-world data drive a simulation that successfully predicts Sun structures and interplanetary solar wind dynamics.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Sun's Magnetic Fields Best at Forecasting Solar Cycle Peaks

by A. K. Higginson 24 February 201627 March 2023

Models based on the Sun's polar magnetic fields performed best in simulating the solar cycle and predicting solar behavior.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Solar Storms Are More Predictable Than Hurricanes

by Mark Zastrow 22 February 201631 May 2022

An encouraging new study finds that solar storms don't propagate chaotically like hurricanes—their arrivals are more predictable, which should make it easier for our planet to prepare for them.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

New Space Weather Forecast Technique Fails to Improve Forecasts

by Mark Zastrow 18 February 20167 July 2025

For years, scientists have proposed upgrading the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's solar storm forecasts to account for their tilt as they streak toward Earth. But does it help?

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

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