Plot showing modelled radiation exposures for aircrew and passengers on seventy Paris to New York flight paths if a severe radiation storm had started four hours after take-off of each flight.
Modelled radiation exposures for aircrew and passengers (expressed as ambient dose equivalent in millisieverts) on seventy Paris to New York flight paths if a severe radiation storm had started four hours after take-off of each flight. The flight paths are actual paths recorded between 5 and 10 March 2019. The storm timeline follows that of the major radiation storm on 20 January 2005, but with timeline stretched by a factor of 2, and the radiation fluences scaled up to match the recently discovered and very severe event of AD774/775. The change in exposures after 6 March is associated with a change to more southerly flight paths. Credit: Hubert and Aubry [2021], Figure 2 lower left panel
Source: Space Weather

Hubert and Aubry [2021] simulate the radiation impact of a very severe, but credible, space weather event on air travel, with a major focus on the busy routes across the North Atlantic. Their simulation looks at many real tracks followed by aircraft in March 2019, and estimates the radiation doses that would have accumulated on-board if exposed to a severe atmospheric radiation storm, such as that thought to have occurred in AD 774/775.

This simulation confirms previous literature (e.g. Cannon et al., 2013) showing that severe radiation storms could expose passengers and aircrew to radiation doses above the internationally agreed limits for public and occupational exposure to radiation. It adds to that by providing valuable insights into how that exposure might vary depending on several factors including the time profile of the storm, the direction of travel and the location of jet stream. I hope that this manuscript provides a stimulus for further work on assessing this rare, but important, space weather risk.

Citation: Hubert, G., & Aubry, S. [2021]. Study of the impact of past extreme solar events on the modern air traffic. Space Weather, 19, e2020SW002665. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002665

―Michael A. Hapgood, Editor, Space Weather

Text © 2021. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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