Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
The Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia have produced more than 100 large earthquakes in the past three centuries, showing that many faults in the region are still active. Chang et al. [2025] use the complete set of available GNSS (satellite-based positioning) measurement data, from 936 stations, to map how the crust is currently deforming. From these measurements, surface strain rates are calculated and, using novel inversion methods, an estimate of the seismic potential can be provided.
The authors find that most deformation (about 70%) is concentrated in the western Tianshan, where mapped faults accommodate roughly 60% of this strain. By comparing these results with the history of past earthquakes, the study identifies 20 fault segments with a “deficit”, that is, capable of producing future earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger.
This work provides the first region-wide model of slip deficit and seismic potential for Tianshan and offers information that can directly improve seismic hazard assessments in Central Asia. The findings are especially timely following the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake.
Citation: Chang, F., Fang, J., Dong, S., Yin, H., Rollins, C., Elliott, J. R., & Hooper, A. J. (2025). Geodetic strain rates, slip deficit rates, and seismic potential in the Tianshan, Central Asia. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118470
—Fabio A. Capitanio, Editor, Geophysical Research Letters