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forecasting

Researchers search for signals of an eruption of the Villarrica volcano in Chile
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Can Volcanic Gas Levels Predict an Eruption?

Alexandra Branscombe by A. Branscombe 12 June 201722 December 2021

Researchers test whether the changing composition of volcanic gas can signal a coming eruption in Chile’s Villarrica volcano.

Winds of more than 100 mph stream through palm trees as Hurricane Wilma makes landfall at Miami Beach, Fla., in 2005.
Posted inOpinions

Proposed Federal Budget Heightens Hurricane Risk

Chris McEntee, executive director and CEO of AGU by Chris McEntee 1 June 201727 October 2022

The health, welfare, and livelihood of millions depend upon our elected officials’ continued and robust support for hurricane research.

Tropical storm Arlene
Posted inNews

Scientists Predict Active Hurricane Season

JoAnna Wendel, freelance science writer and illustrator by JoAnna Wendel 26 May 201712 December 2022

A combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a weak or absent El Niño may create conditions conducive to tropical storm formation.

Posted inEditors' Vox

Reducing Uncertainty in Hazard Prediction

by K. Riley, M. Thompson, P. Webley and K. Hyde 28 April 201720 May 2022

The editors of a new book describe how to characterize uncertainty in natural hazards, the incorporation of uncertainty into modeling, its contribution to better decision-making, and research needs.

Kīlauea is one of the volcanoes fingerprinted in a new study.
Posted inNews

“Fingerprinting” Volcanic Tremors May Help Forecast Eruptions

Lucas Joel by L. Joel 10 April 201711 May 2022

Volcano seismic waves produce distinct tremor patterns, or "fingerprints," shared by different kinds of volcanoes.

Evacuees flee a wildfire that threatened Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, in May 2016.
Posted inScience Updates

Meteorologists Track Wildfires Using Satellite Smoke Images

by A. K. Huff and S. Kondragunta 4 April 20173 November 2022

Enhancements to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's decision support system give forecasters new capabilities for tracking smoke from fires using satellite data.

Technicians maintain an enhanced data buoy in the northwest Pacific, part of a new program to help monitor typhoons.
Posted inScience Updates

New Data Buoys Watch Typhoons from Within the Storm

by S. Jan, Y. J. Yang, H.-I. Chang, M.-H. Chang and C.-L. Wei 27 March 20179 February 2022

Advanced real-time data buoys have observed nine strong typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean since 2015, providing high-resolution data and reducing the uncertainty of numerical model forecasts.

Understanding how solar storms subside will help to improve future forecasting
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Scientists Probe the Calm After Solar Storms

by Mark Zastrow 21 March 201721 February 2023

In forecasting the effects of solar storms, understanding how they subside—and not just how they arrive—will be crucial.

sunlight on water
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Sun Glitter Provides a Detailed Map of Ocean Waves

by S. Witman 20 March 20176 February 2023

European scientists use satellite sensors to detect light reflected off waves at the ocean's surface, which could help improve wave forecasts.

Matt Lancaster sets up a GPS receiver.
Posted inScience Updates

Using Strain Rates to Forecast Seismic Hazards

by E. L. Evans 14 March 20175 October 2022

Workshop on Geodetic Modeling for Seismic Hazard; Menlo Park, California, 19 September 2016

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