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forecasting

Drought is an absence of water but it is actually a complex phenomenon and one of the most poorly understood natural hazards
Posted inEditors' Vox

The Challenges of Drought Prediction

by Z. Hao 16 February 20186 February 2023

Advances in dynamical modeling and the use of hybrid methods have improved drought prediction, but challenges still remain to improve the accuracy of drought forecasting.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Fast CMEs Continue to Decelerate in the Outer Heliosphere

by Y. Wang 12 February 201831 May 2022

Most fast coronal mass ejections will be decelerated into ambient solar wind quickly in the inner heliosphere, but some of them continue the deceleration with an even larger amplitude beyond 1 AU.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Space Weather: Exploiting Meteorology’s Toolkit

by Michael A. Hapgood 31 January 20184 May 2022

Space weather forecasting is benefiting, and can benefit much further, from concepts and tools already developed by the global meteorological community.

New modeling analyzes how snow affects the intensity of mountain precipitation in a changing climate
Posted inResearch Spotlights

How Does Snow Affect the Intensity of Mountain Precipitation?

by Terri Cook 24 January 20186 February 2023

A new investigation into the sensitivity of extreme precipitation in a changing climate indicates that more winter rainfall and protracted snowmelt may require local adaptations to winter flooding impacts.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Listening to the Clouds

by Z. Li 22 January 201813 February 2023

The assimilation of cloud-cleared infrared data improves numerical weather forecasting, especially for hurricanes, by providing thermodynamic information in cloudy atmosphere.

Ecuador’s Tungurahua volcano. A 2017 report summarizes the current state of volcano science and issues three grand challenges.
Posted inScience Updates

Working Together Toward Better Volcanic Forecasting

by M. Manga 8 January 201828 March 2023

A National Academies report highlights challenges and opportunities in volcano science.

A new model of solar winds could improve predictions of space storms
Posted inResearch Spotlights

A Better Way to Predict Space Storms

by E. Underwood 13 December 201713 April 2022

A new model of solar winds could reduce false alarms.

Lightning bolt striking a field
Posted inNews

New Model Predicts Lightning Strikes; Alert System to Follow

Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Writing and Production Intern for Eos.org by Kimberly M. S. Cartier 11 December 201723 February 2023

Data from thousands of past storms help guide a new forecast model that predicts where and when lightning may hit.

Sea surface temperature departure from average, observed vs. forecast
Posted inScience Updates

Advancing Climate Forecasting

by W. J. Merryfield, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, L. Ferranti, J.-H. Jeong, Y. J. Orsolini, R. I. Saurral, A. A. Scaife, M. A. Tolstykh and M. Rixen 27 November 201714 February 2023

Better forecasts, new products: The World Climate Research Programme coordinates research aimed at improving and extending global climate forecasting capabilities.

Posted inEditors' Highlights

Lightning Data Improves Precipitation Forecasts

by Minghua Zhang 22 November 20178 March 2022

Short-term forecasts of precipitation and convection can be improved when lightning data are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting system.

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