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forecasting

Posted inEditors' Vox

In Pursuit of Flash Flood Data

by J. J. Gourley 25 August 201723 January 2023

How remote sensing of streams provides valuable data for the characterization, prediction, and warning of impending flash floods.

Lava flowing from Kīlauea volcano
Posted inNews

Satellite Observations Could Help Forecast an Eruption’s End

Ilima Loomis, Science Writer by Ilima Loomis 16 August 201717 November 2022

Researchers studying past volcanic activity found they could retrospectively predict when outflows of molten rock would cease for about 40% of effusive eruptions, the kind that produces flowing lava.

Researchers draft a new model to better simulate deadly pyroclastic flows.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

A Promising New Tool for Forecasting Volcanic Hazards

by Terri Cook 3 August 20175 June 2023

A new model that simulates the behavior of surging ash clouds may help scientists to better predict the hazards associated with the deadliest type of volcanic flows.

Posted inNews

Storm Model Foresaw Tornado Precursor Hours Before Twister Hit

Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Writing and Production Intern for Eos.org by Kimberly M. S. Cartier 26 July 20173 June 2022

The experimental Warn-on-Forecast project calculates probabilities of severe weather within at-risk areas smaller than those targeted by current forecasting models.

Researchers assess the role of water vapor in predicting volcanic eruptions
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Can Water Vapor Help Forecast When a Volcano Will Blow?

by E. Underwood 10 July 201715 November 2022

A widely used technique to monitor sulfur dioxide was tweaked to focus on water vapor at Peru’s Sabancaya Volcano. Results show that the volcano steamed up prior to its 2016 eruption.

Researchers search for signals of an eruption of the Villarrica volcano in Chile
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Can Volcanic Gas Levels Predict an Eruption?

Alexandra Branscombe by A. Branscombe 12 June 201722 December 2021

Researchers test whether the changing composition of volcanic gas can signal a coming eruption in Chile’s Villarrica volcano.

Winds of more than 100 mph stream through palm trees as Hurricane Wilma makes landfall at Miami Beach, Fla., in 2005.
Posted inOpinions

Proposed Federal Budget Heightens Hurricane Risk

Chris McEntee, executive director and CEO of AGU by Chris McEntee 1 June 201727 October 2022

The health, welfare, and livelihood of millions depend upon our elected officials’ continued and robust support for hurricane research.

Tropical storm Arlene
Posted inNews

Scientists Predict Active Hurricane Season

JoAnna Wendel, freelance science writer and illustrator by JoAnna Wendel 26 May 201712 December 2022

A combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a weak or absent El Niño may create conditions conducive to tropical storm formation.

Posted inEditors' Vox

Reducing Uncertainty in Hazard Prediction

by K. Riley, M. Thompson, P. Webley and K. Hyde 28 April 201720 May 2022

The editors of a new book describe how to characterize uncertainty in natural hazards, the incorporation of uncertainty into modeling, its contribution to better decision-making, and research needs.

Kīlauea is one of the volcanoes fingerprinted in a new study.
Posted inNews

“Fingerprinting” Volcanic Tremors May Help Forecast Eruptions

Lucas Joel by L. Joel 10 April 201711 May 2022

Volcano seismic waves produce distinct tremor patterns, or "fingerprints," shared by different kinds of volcanoes.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

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