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forecasting

Flooding in Vienna after an ice dam failed on the Danube River in March 1830, captured here in a watercolor painting by Eduard Gurk
Posted inResearch Spotlights

How Vague Historical Writings Help Scientists Predict Floods

Leah Crane by L. Crane 13 September 20169 March 2023

By including imprecise historical written records in their calculations, researchers were able to decrease uncertainty in estimations of future flood frequency.

Residents in Louisiana survey a flooded road.
Posted inNews

New Flood Model Offers National Streamflow Coverage

JoAnna Wendel, freelance science writer and illustrator by JoAnna Wendel 19 August 201610 March 2023

The model, released by the National Weather Service, will provide neighborhood-level flood forecasting.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Forecasting Space Weather Like Earth Weather

Leah Crane by L. Crane 19 August 201613 April 2022

Researchers find that as with terrestrial weather, ensemble forecasting—which uses several different models simultaneously—is the best way to produce accurate and precise forecasts of space weather.

Ocean-going ships like this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration vessel plying rough water off North Carolina occasionally encounter huge waves that science still cannot predict.
Posted inNews

Model Predicts Heights of Rogue Waves

Amy Coombs by A. Coombs 29 June 201617 October 2022

Rogue waves form without warning and can tower more than 25 meters high. A new mathematical approach shows promise at simulating how high these waves can be.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Adapting Weather Forecasting Techniques to Paleoclimate Studies

by Terri Cook 17 June 201614 June 2022

First results of the Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project demonstrate the potential of the method to improve historical climate estimates by linking proxy data with climate models.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Defining the Onset and End of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 15 June 201616 March 2023

A new, objective definition of the onset of the summer monsoon could improve predictions of rainfall in India.

Posted inEditors' Vox

Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act Introduced to Senate

by D. J. Knipp 10 June 20165 July 2022

This bill is a welcome and proactive effort to align all federal agencies to act in the nation's best interest when it comes to forecasting and responding to extreme space weather events.

Engineers decommissioning an ocean bottom seismometer and differential pressure gauge
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Streamlining Rapid Tsunami Forecasting

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 23 May 20168 December 2022

With enough sensors, traditional forecasting methods could be replaced by models continuously updated with real-time wave data.

Estimated pattern of multidecadal internal variability in (top) Pacific and (bottom) Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Was the Recent Slowdown in Surface Warming Predictable?

by Terri Cook 11 May 20163 February 2023

The temporary deceleration in warming across the Northern Hemisphere earlier this century could not have been foreseen by statistical forecasting methods, a new study concludes.

Posted inResearch Spotlights

Improving the Identification of Extreme Precipitation Trends in the U.S.

by Terri Cook 14 April 201628 February 2023

By greatly reducing the associated uncertainty, a new model is better able to discern statistically significant trends, offering the potential to improve the seasonal forecasting of rare events.

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