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Modeling

An image of the microstructure of sea ice shows dappled green, blue, and purple colors in a pattern that looks similar to granite.
Posted inNews

Changes in Sea Ice Microstructure Could Affect Climate Models

by Skyler Ware 20 May 202620 May 2026

Granular sea ice needs to be twice as porous as columnar ice to allow water to flow through it—up to 10% brine by volume.

An array of solar panels on a field under a blue sky.
Posted inResearch & Developments

Why the IPCC Seems Poised to Eliminate Its Most Extreme Emissions Scenario

by Grace van Deelen 19 May 202619 May 2026

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body whose mission is to “provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies” will likely update the emissions and land use scenarios used in the models it considers in its bellwether assessment reports.

The flooded Yuba River rages underneath the Highway 49 Bridge in Nevada City, Calif.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Keeping Humans in the Loop Improves Flood Forecasting

by Rebecca Owen 19 May 202619 May 2026

Artificial intelligence and machine learning can improve flood predictions—but human expertise still matters for accurate warnings, new research says.

Diagram and photo of the experimental setup.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Small and Large Grains Move Differently in Water

by Eric Parteli 18 May 202618 May 2026

A shift in perspective: flume experiments show that grain entrainment is far more complex than traditional models suggest.

The West Kern Fire and thick smoke move through trees near the boundary of California’s Sequoia National Park.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

How Much Will Western Wildfires Worsen Under Warming?

by Rebecca Owen 15 May 202626 May 2026

A new study reevaluates the use of vapor pressure deficit, or VPD, in climate models to predict increases in area burned by wildfire across the U.S. West.

A river flowing through a mountainous region.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Tracing Water’s Hidden Journey Through the Earth’s Living Skin

by Andrea L. Popp and Harsh Beria 13 May 202612 May 2026

Water’s natural fingerprints reveal how it’s stored, mixed, and released through the Earth’s Critical Zone, potentially improving Earth System models in a rapidly warming world.

Map of the study region with a graph.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Let’s Not Forget About Long Droughts

by Stefan Kollet 5 May 20264 May 2026

Why do conceptual hydrologic models struggle to model long-term droughts? A new study investigates.

Large plumes of smoke rise from a hillside. Two vehicles on a roadside are dwarfed by the smoke cloud.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Want to Predict Wildfire Severity? Look to the State of Vegetation

by Rebecca Owen 4 May 20264 May 2026

A new study connects satellite data on vegetation condition, topography, and weather conditions to examine the predicted versus actual burn severity of the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.

Snow drifts.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Drone Imagery Reveals Marked Variability in Antarctic Snow Roughness

by Elizabeth Orr 4 May 20264 May 2026

Multi-temporal UAV oblique photogrammetry reveals significant fine-scale variability in Antarctic snow roughness driven by surface type, measurement scale, model choice, and meteorological conditions.

Satellite image of The Dalles Google data center and the adjacent Columbia River.
Posted inOpinions

The Genesis Mission Needs Hydrology: Here’s How to Incorporate It

by Amobichukwu C. Amanambu and Jonathan Frame 28 April 20265 May 2026

By positioning water security as one of the “most challenging problems of this century,” the Genesis Mission can become the sandbox in which AI reshapes how the United States measures, models, and manages water.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

Mangroves May Be Losing Their Grip on Carbon Storage as Sea Levels Rise

5 June 20263 June 2026
Editors' Highlights

Pre-Existing Structure and Stress Shape Geothermal-Induced Seismicity

2 June 20261 June 2026
Editors' Vox

Small-Scale Indian Ocean Dynamics Underpin Marine Ecology and Climate

4 June 20263 June 2026
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