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Modeling

Large plumes of smoke rise from a hillside. Two vehicles on a roadside are dwarfed by the smoke cloud.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Want to Predict Wildfire Severity? Look to the State of Vegetation

by Rebecca Owen 4 May 20264 May 2026

A new study connects satellite data on vegetation condition, topography, and weather conditions to examine the predicted versus actual burn severity of the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.

Snow drifts.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Drone Imagery Reveals Marked Variability in Antarctic Snow Roughness

by Elizabeth Orr 4 May 20264 May 2026

Multi-temporal UAV oblique photogrammetry reveals significant fine-scale variability in Antarctic snow roughness driven by surface type, measurement scale, model choice, and meteorological conditions.

Satellite image of The Dalles Google data center and the adjacent Columbia River.
Posted inOpinions

The Genesis Mission Needs Hydrology: Here’s How to Incorporate It

by Amobichukwu C. Amanambu and Jonathan Frame 28 April 20265 May 2026

By positioning water security as one of the “most challenging problems of this century,” the Genesis Mission can become the sandbox in which AI reshapes how the United States measures, models, and manages water.

An aerial view of the Southern Ocean and coastline of Antarctica, which is a brown landmass mostly covered in snow
Posted inNews

Widening Channels and Westerly Winds Together Formed Earth’s Strongest Current

by Grace van Deelen 24 April 20261 May 2026

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current could only develop once wind patterns aligned with new ocean passages 34 million years ago, a new study suggests.

A forest at golden hour
Posted inNews

Location, Location, Location: The “Where” of Reforestation May Matter More Than the Extent

by Andrew Meissen 22 April 20261 May 2026

A new study finds that focusing reforestation efforts in strategic locations, such as the tropics, can accomplish global cooling levels comparable to less strategic reforestation efforts covering twice as much area.

Four small docks overlook a waterfront. In the distance, wooden structures, shellfish farms, are visible in the water. The sky is pale.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Mediterranean Mussel Farming Could Collapse by 2050

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer by Sarah Stanley 17 April 20261 May 2026

New experiments suggest that ocean warming and acidification are on track to slash both oyster and mussel farming yields.

Large crevasses and cracks in a glacier are seen from overhead.
Posted inResearch Spotlights

Glaciers May Flow into the Ocean More Quickly Than We Think

by Madeline Reinsel 14 April 20261 May 2026

New research found that adjusting a key model variable may give more accurate predictions of glacial retreat.

Aerial view of a flooded landscape and town.
Posted inEditors' Vox

Synergistic Integration of Flood Inundation Modeling Methods

by Behzad Nazari and Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf 10 April 20261 May 2026

Recent flood modeling advances are trending into silos that compete rather than complement each other, hampering the opportunity for transformative progress toward protecting lives and communities.

Dark storm clouds looming over a road and crop fields.
Posted inEditors' Highlights

Machine Learning Could Enhance Earth System Modeling

by Donald Wuebbles 10 April 20261 May 2026

Based on tests of a machine learning-based (ML) hybrid model, combining ML with established physics-based frameworks represents a promising path toward developing ML-based Earth system models.

A huge, still-smoldering burn scar dominates an aerial image of a forest, with green forest still visible at right.
Posted inNews

Alaska’s Wildfires Heat the Planet, but Canada’s Cool It

by Saugat Bolakhe 9 April 20261 May 2026

Using 2 decades of satellite data, researchers learned that wildfires in North America don’t follow the same script: In western Canada, snow reflectivity drives a cooling effect, whereas in Alaska, permafrost burning leads to net warming.

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Over a dark blue-green square appear the words Special Report: The State of the Science 1 Year On.

Features from AGU Publications

Research Spotlights

As Wildfires Increase in the West, So Does Suppression Spending

10 June 202610 June 2026
Editors' Highlights

A Snapshot of Continental Crust in the Making

17 June 202616 June 2026
Editors' Vox

Small-Scale Indian Ocean Dynamics Underpin Marine Ecology and Climate

4 June 20263 June 2026
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